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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland Inflation Rate MoM fell to -0.4% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Poland Inflation Rate MoM fell to -0.4% in October 2026, down 1.1% from September's 0.7% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.3% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.28%. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.58%, vs -0.03% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 7th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.4
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.76
Actual: 0.7
Error: +0.06
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate MoM (Poland) was reported at -0.4% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.25%, ranging from -0.5% to 1% across 20 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.57%, down from the prior three at 0.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.44%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.26%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Nov 4) and GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Nov 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Inflation Rate MoM - PL
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About Inflation Rate MoM — Poland
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services in a given economy from one month to the next. It is a key measure of inflation and provides insight into the rate at which prices are rising or falling, which can impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 0.7 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 0.7 %. Before that (Sep 2026): 0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PL Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | PL | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.03 | Medium |
| 08:30 | PL | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.13 | Low |