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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal GDP Growth Rate QoQ fell to 0.2% in Q3 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased October 2026
Portugal GDP Growth Rate QoQ fell to 0.2% in Q3 2026, released October 2026, down 0.7% from June's 0.9% reading. The reading matched the 0.2% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.42%. The reading is in the 31st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.2
Actual: 0.2
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.69 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Portugal) was reported at 0.2% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.2% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.61%, ranging from 0% to 0.9% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.6%, up from the prior three at 0.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.33%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.72%). In October readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate QoQ has averaged 0.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate QoQ - PT
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About GDP Growth Rate QoQ — Portugal
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Quarter over Quarter) is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage change in a country's gross domestic product from one quarter to the next. It provides valuable insight into the overall health and growth of the economy, and is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions. A positive GDP Growth Rate QoQ indicates a growing economy, while a negative rate suggests a decline. This indicator is an important tool for assessing the current state and predicting future trends of a country's economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.69) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PT Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | PT | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Industrial Production MoM | -2 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Retail Sales YoY | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.40 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Industrial Production YoY | -3.8 | -1.6 | -1.60 | Low | |
| 11:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -7.3 | -4.6 | -4.60 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -7.3 | -4.6 | -4.60 | Low | |