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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 2.3% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased May 2026
Portugal GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 2.3% in January 2026, released May 2026, up 0.4% from December's 1.9% reading. The reading matched the 2.3% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.11%. The reading is in the 69th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.3
Actual
2.3
Consensus
1.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 2.3
Actual: 2.3
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.79 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Portugal) was reported at 2.3% in May 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.3% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.1%, ranging from 1.9% to 2.4% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.03%, down from the prior three at 2.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.23%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.49%). In May readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 1.75%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.4%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - PT
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Portugal
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 2.3 %, consensus 2.3 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2.3 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 1.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.79) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.