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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 2.5% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased July 2026
Portugal GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 2.5% in April 2026, released July 2026, up 0.1% from March's 2.4% reading. The print exceeded the 1.8% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.14%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the highest in 15 months.
Latest Release
2.5
Actual
1.8
Consensus
2.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 1.8
Actual: 2.5
Error: -0.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.79 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Portugal) was reported at 2.5% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.8% by 0.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.19%, ranging from 1.9% to 2.5% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.23%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.25%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.46%). In July readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 2.05%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.4%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - PT
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Portugal
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.5 %, consensus 1.8 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2.3 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 2.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.79) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - PT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | PT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.15 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | Business Confidence | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.75 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | Consumer Confidence | -22.6 | -25.9 | -26.4 | -24.50 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Retail Sales YoY | 3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.88 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Retail Sales MoM | 1.7 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.93 | Low |