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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 2.3% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Portugal Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 2.3% in January 2026, released May 2026, up 0.4% from December's 1.9% reading. The reading matched the 2.3% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.07%.
Latest Release
2.3
Actual
2.3
Consensus
1.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 2.3
Actual: 2.3
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Portugal) was reported at 2.5% in July 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.19%, ranging from 1.9% to 2.5% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.23%, unchanged from the prior three.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - PT
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Portugal
DEFINITION
Portugal's Gross Domestic Product YoY rose to 2.500000% in May 2026, up from April's 2.300000%, signaling stronger economic growth. This acceleration marks a continuation of the upward trend since early 2026, reflecting expanding economic activity. Market participants will watch for upcoming data to assess if this momentum sustains amid evolving monetary policy. Updated 7/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.5 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2.3 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 2.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.73) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | PT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.15 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | Business Confidence | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.75 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | Consumer Confidence | -22.6 | -25.9 | -26.4 | -24.50 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Retail Sales YoY | 3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.88 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Retail Sales MoM | 1.7 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.93 | Low |