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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 2.5% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Portugal Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 2.5% in April 2026, released August 2026, up 0.1% from March's 2.4% reading. The reading matched the 2.5% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.13%. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the highest in 16 months.
Latest Release
2.5
Actual
2.5
Consensus
2.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 2.5
Actual: 2.5
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.80 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Portugal) was reported at 2.5% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.5% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.25%, ranging from 1.9% to 2.5% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.43%, up from the prior three at 2.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.26%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.43%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - PT
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Portugal
DEFINITION
Portugal's Gross Domestic Product YoY for August came in at 2.500%, matching estimates and up from July's 2.500% reading, maintaining steady growth. The economy sustained its expansion pace compared to June's 2.300%, signaling consistent momentum. Market focus remains on upcoming data releases to gauge if this trend will persist. Updated 8/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.5 %, consensus 2.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.5 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 2.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.80) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PT Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | PT | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Industrial Production MoM | -2 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Retail Sales YoY | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.40 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Industrial Production YoY | -3.8 | -1.6 | -1.60 | Low | |
| 11:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -7.3 | -4.6 | -4.60 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -7.3 | -4.6 | -4.60 | Low | |