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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 2.3% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Portugal Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 2.3% in January 2026, released May 2026, up 0.4% from December's 1.9% reading. The reading matched the 2.3% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.07%.
Latest Release
2.3
Actual
2.3
Consensus
1.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 2.3
Actual: 2.3
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Portugal) was reported at 2.3% in May 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.3% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.1%, ranging from 1.9% to 2.4% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.03%, down from the prior three at 2.23%. In May readings over the past 3 years, Gross Domestic Product YoY has averaged 1.83%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - PT
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Portugal
DEFINITION
Portugal's Gross Domestic Product YoY came in at 2.300000% for April, matching estimates and up from March's 1.900000%. This marks continued economic expansion with growth accelerating by 0.4 percentage points year-over-year. Market focus remains on upcoming monetary policy decisions amid steady GDP gains. Updated 5/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 2.3 %, consensus 2.3 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2.3 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 1.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.73) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.