Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SerbiaSerbia Balance of Trade fell to -902.9M in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Serbia Balance of Trade fell to -902.9M in April 2026, released May 2026, down 153.9M from March's -749M reading. The print exceeded the -960M consensus by 57.1M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -816.13M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -656.77M, vs -1,067.3M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 60th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-902.9
Actual
-960
Consensus
-749
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±272.53 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -1,326.3
Actual: -902.9
Error: -423.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Serbia) was reported at -902.90 million in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -960.00 million by 57.10 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -749.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -795.55 million, ranging from -1,204.00 million to -199.40 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -689.97 million, up from the prior three at -980.37 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 247.80 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 164.64 million). In May readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -949.10 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 272.53 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
SHARE
Balance of Trade - RS
Loading chart data...
About Balance of Trade — Serbia
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -902.9 M, consensus -960 M. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -803.3 M. Before that (Feb 2026): -967.6 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.66) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.