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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RussiaRussia Vehicle Sales YoY fell to -7.3% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Russia Vehicle Sales YoY fell to -7.3% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 7.6% from July's 0.3% reading. The reading missed the 5.0% consensus by 12.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -1.99%. Over the past 3 months, Vehicle Sales YoY averaged -3.5%, vs 17.23% in the prior 3-month window. Vehicle Sales YoY is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
-7.3
Actual
5
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±10.42 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -7.35
Actual: -7.3
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.82 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.71 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Vehicle Sales YoY (Russia) was reported at -7.3% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5% by 12.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -3.2%, ranging from -20% to 18% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.67%, up from the prior three at -4.77%. Volatility over the past year (σ 11.21%) is lower than the prior year (σ 27.17%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Vehicle Sales YoY has averaged 2.57%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 10.42%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Sep 30) and Gross Domestic Product YoY (Sep 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Vehicle Sales YoY - RU
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About Vehicle Sales YoY — Russia
DEFINITION
Vehicle Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the number of vehicles sold by a company or industry compared to the same period in the previous year. This metric is used to assess the growth or decline in vehicle sales and can provide valuable insights into the overall performance and trends of the automotive market. It is a key indicator for investors, analysts, and businesses in the automotive industry to make informed decisions and evaluate the health of the market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -7.3 %, consensus 5 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -7.3 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.82) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - RU Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:00 | RU | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 5.50 | Low |
| 16:00 | RU | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.9 | -2.5 | -0.9 | 0.00 | Low |