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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia M3 Money Supply YoY fell to 4.8% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply YoY fell to 4.8% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.8% from August's 5.6% reading. The reading missed the 5.6% consensus by 0.8%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 7.46%. Over the past 3 months, M3 Money Supply YoY averaged 6.49%, vs 9.02% in the prior 3-month window. M3 Money Supply YoY is now the lowest in 25 months.
Latest Release
4.8
Actual
5.6
Consensus
5.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.92 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 5.3
Actual: 4.8
Error: +0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
M3 Money Supply YoY (Saudi Arabia) was reported at 4.8% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.6% by 0.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 7.59%, ranging from 4.8% to 10% across 15 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.07%, down from the prior three at 8.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.48%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.75%). In October readings over the past 3 years, M3 Money Supply YoY has averaged 7.18%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.92%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include GDP Growth Rate YoY (Nov 1).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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M3 Money Supply YoY - SA
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About M3 Money Supply YoY — Saudi Arabia
DEFINITION
M3 Money Supply YoY is a financial indicator that measures the annual change in the total amount of money in circulation within an economy. It includes all forms of money, such as cash, deposits, and other liquid assets. This indicator is used by economists and policymakers to assess the overall health and stability of a country's monetary system and to make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A positive YoY change in M3 Money Supply indicates an increase in liquidity and potential for economic growth, while a negative change may signal potential inflationary pressures.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 4.8 %, consensus 5.6 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 4.8 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 5.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - SA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | SA | M3 Money Supply YoY | 4.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.20 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | SA | M3 Money Supply YoY | 4.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.20 | Low |
| 10:00 | SA | Bank Lending YoY | 6 | 6 | 5.9 | 5.85 | Low |