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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SwedenSweden GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 2.8% in July 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased October 2026
Sweden GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 2.8% in July 2026, released October 2026, down 0.5% from June's 3.3% reading. The reading matched the 2.9% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.91%. The reading is in the 88th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.8
Actual
2.9
Consensus
3.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.55 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 3.3
Actual: 2.8
Error: +0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.89 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.77 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.64 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/SEK | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/SEK | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Sweden) was reported at 2.8% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.9% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.49%, ranging from 1.8% to 3.3% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.97%, up from the prior three at 1.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.5%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.63%). In October readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 1.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.55%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - SE
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Sweden
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 2.8 %, consensus 2.9 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.89) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - SE Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:30 | SE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 58.1 | 57.4 | 57.40 | Low | |