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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SwedenSweden GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 2.8% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased July 2026
Sweden GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 2.8% in April 2026, released July 2026, up 0.8% from March's 2.0% reading. The print exceeded the 1.9% consensus by 0.9%. GDP Growth Rate YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the highest in 45 months.
Latest Release
2.8
Actual
1.9
Consensus
2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.65 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 1.75
Actual: 2.8
Error: -1.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/SEK | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/SEK | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Sweden) was reported at 2.8% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.9% by 0.9%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.16%, ranging from 1.4% to 2.8% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.3%, up from the prior three at 2.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.45%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.66%). In July readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 1.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/SEK, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CPI YoY (Aug 6) and CPI MoM (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - SE
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Sweden
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.8 %, consensus 1.9 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 1.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - SE Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | SE | Retail Sales YoY | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 5.85 | Low |
| 06:00 | SE | Retail Sales MoM | 1 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.70 | Low |
| 07:00 | SE | Economic Tendency Indicator | 104.7 | 102.1 | 101.1 | 102.90 | Low |
| 07:00 | SE | Consumer Confidence | 97.1 | 94.2 | 93 | 95.05 | Low |
| 07:00 | SE | Business Confidence | 106.3 | 104.1 | 103 | 104.65 | Low |
| 07:00 | SE | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.55 | Low |