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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SwedenSweden GDP Growth Rate YoY held to 2.0% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased May 2026
Sweden GDP Growth Rate YoY held to 2.0% in January 2026, released May 2026. The reading missed the 2.3% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.58%. The reading is in the 72nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2
Actual
2.3
Consensus
2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.65 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 2.3
Actual: 2
Error: +0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| EUR/SEK | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| USD/SEK | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Sweden) was reported at 2% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.3% by 0.3%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.89%, ranging from 0.9% to 2.6% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.97%, down from the prior three at 2.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.54%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.73%). In May readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 1.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Riksbank Rate Decision (Jun 17) and Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - SE
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Sweden
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 2 %, consensus 2.3 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 1.6 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 2.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.40) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.