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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SwedenSweden Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to -0.2% in Q1 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Sweden Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to -0.2% in Q1 2026, released May 2026, down 1.0% from December's 0.8% reading. The reading matched the -0.2% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.43%. Gross Domestic Product QoQ is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
-0.2
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.3 percentage points
across last 8 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -0.2
Actual: -0.2
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Sweden) was reported at -0.2% in May 2026. This matched the market consensus of -0.2% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.47%, ranging from -0.2% to 1.1% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.17%, down from the prior three at 0.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 8 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.3%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Riksbank Rate Decision (Jun 17) and Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - SE
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — Sweden
DEFINITION
Sweden's Gross Domestic Product QoQ contracted by -0.20% in April, matching the previous month's decline of -0.20%. This follows a sharp reversal from February's 0.5% expansion, signaling continued economic weakness. Market focus remains on upcoming data for May and the Riksbank's monetary policy stance amid persistent contraction. Updated 5/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -0.2 %, consensus -0.2 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -0.2 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.64) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.