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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SwedenSweden Gross Domestic Product YoY held to 2.0% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Sweden Gross Domestic Product YoY held to 2.0% in January 2026, released May 2026. The print exceeded the 1.6% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.72%.
Latest Release
2
Actual
1.6
Consensus
2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.5 percentage points
across last 8 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1.6
Actual: 2
Error: -0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Sweden) was reported at 2.8% in July 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.16%, ranging from 1.4% to 2.8% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.3%, up from the prior three at 2.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 8 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.5%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CPI YoY (Aug 6) and CPI MoM (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - SE
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Sweden
DEFINITION
Sweden's Gross Domestic Product YoY rose to 2.800000% in June, up from May's 2.000000%, signaling stronger economic growth. This acceleration marks a clear expansion compared to the previous month’s reading. Market focus will remain on upcoming inflation data and Riksbank policy decisions amid this growth momentum. Updated 7/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.8 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 1.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.60) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - SE Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | SE | Retail Sales YoY | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 5.85 | Low |
| 06:00 | SE | Retail Sales MoM | 1 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.70 | Low |
| 07:00 | SE | Economic Tendency Indicator | 104.7 | 102.1 | 101.1 | 102.90 | Low |
| 07:00 | SE | Consumer Confidence | 97.1 | 94.2 | 93 | 95.05 | Low |
| 07:00 | SE | Business Confidence | 106.3 | 104.1 | 103 | 104.65 | Low |
| 07:00 | SE | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.55 | Low |