Sweden’s household consumption growth for November 2025 registered a 0.30% month-on-month (MoM) increase, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This figure aligns precisely with market consensus but represents a slowdown from October’s robust 0.80% rise. Over the past year, consumption has averaged a more modest 0.30% MoM, reflecting a mixed economic environment.

Drivers this month

• Shelter and utilities spending contributed 0.12 percentage points (pp).
• Durable goods purchases added 0.08 pp, supported by seasonal promotions.
• Services consumption slowed, subtracting -0.05 pp amid inflation concerns.

Policy pulse

The 0.30% growth sits below the Riksbank’s inflation target of 2%, suggesting consumption is growing but not overheating. The central bank’s recent rate hikes to 3.75% have started to temper borrowing and spending.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The SEK/USD currency pair weakened 0.15% within the first hour post-release, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. Swedish 2-year government bond yields edged up 5 basis points, signaling expectations of continued monetary tightening.

Household consumption is a critical component of Sweden’s GDP, accounting for roughly 50% of economic activity. The 0.30% MoM increase in November follows a volatile pattern this year, with swings from -1.20% in July to 1.10% in April, as recorded in the Sigmanomics database. This volatility reflects shifting consumer confidence amid inflationary pressures and global uncertainties.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Riksbank’s tightening cycle, now at 3.75%, aims to curb inflation that peaked near 3.50% YoY earlier this year. Higher borrowing costs have dampened credit growth, with household loan increases slowing to 2.10% YoY from 3.40% six months ago. This tightening is a key headwind for consumption.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Sweden’s government budget remains in slight surplus, enabling targeted fiscal support for vulnerable groups. Recent measures include energy subsidies and tax credits, which have bolstered disposable income and partially offset inflation’s bite. However, fiscal tightening is expected in 2026 to maintain fiscal discipline.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global supply chain disruptions have eased but remain a risk factor for durable goods prices. Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and energy markets continue to inject uncertainty, affecting consumer confidence and spending decisions.

The data shows a pattern of uneven recovery, with consumption sensitive to monetary policy shifts and external shocks. Durable goods and shelter remain the main growth drivers, while services spending has softened. The 12-month trend line indicates a gradual normalization following pandemic-related disruptions.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: Swedish krona (SEK) depreciated slightly against the euro (EUR/SEK 0.20%) after the release, reflecting tempered optimism. Equity markets showed minimal movement, indicating the data was largely priced in.

Looking ahead, household consumption in Sweden faces a complex outlook shaped by monetary, fiscal, and external factors. The Riksbank’s policy trajectory and inflation developments will be decisive.

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

• Inflation falls faster than expected, easing real income pressures.
• Monetary policy pauses or reverses, lowering borrowing costs.
• Consumer confidence rebounds, pushing MoM consumption growth to 0.50%-0.70%.

Base scenario (60% probability)

• Inflation remains near target but sticky.
• Monetary tightening continues at a slower pace.
• Consumption grows steadily at 0.30% MoM, supported by fiscal buffers.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Inflation surprises on the upside, eroding purchasing power.
• Further monetary tightening depresses credit availability.
• Consumption contracts by up to -0.20% MoM amid weaker sentiment.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Long-term shifts toward digital consumption, sustainability, and service-oriented spending continue to reshape household behavior. These trends may dampen traditional retail growth but open new avenues in e-commerce and green products.

Sweden’s November 2025 household consumption data signals a cautious consumer environment. While growth remains positive, the slowdown from October’s pace reflects the balancing act between inflation, monetary policy, and external risks. Policymakers must navigate these dynamics carefully to sustain economic momentum without stoking inflation. Market participants should monitor inflation trends, Riksbank guidance, and geopolitical developments closely.

Overall, the consumption outlook is mixed but stable, with upside potential if inflation eases and downside risks if global uncertainties intensify.

Key Markets Likely to React to Household Consumption MoM

Household consumption data is a vital gauge of economic health and influences multiple asset classes. The following tradable symbols historically track Sweden’s consumption trends, reflecting sensitivity to domestic demand and monetary conditions.

• ERIC – Ericsson’s stock price often correlates with Swedish consumer and business spending cycles.
• EURSEK – The euro-to-Swedish krona exchange rate reacts to shifts in Sweden’s economic outlook and consumption data.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price can reflect broader risk sentiment influenced by macroeconomic indicators like consumption.
• ASSA-B – Assa Abloy’s shares are sensitive to domestic demand trends, including household spending on durable goods.
• USDSEK – The US dollar to Swedish krona pair is a key barometer for capital flows reacting to consumption and policy shifts.

Insight: Household Consumption vs. ERIC Stock Price Since 2020

Since 2020, Sweden’s household consumption MoM growth and Ericsson (ERIC) stock price have shown a positive correlation. Periods of rising consumption, such as early 2024’s recovery, coincided with ERIC’s share price gains of over 15%. Conversely, consumption dips in mid-2025 aligned with ERIC’s temporary pullbacks. This relationship underscores how consumer demand influences corporate earnings expectations and investor sentiment in Sweden’s tech sector.

FAQs

What is the significance of Sweden’s Household Consumption MoM data?

The Household Consumption MoM data measures monthly changes in consumer spending, a key driver of Sweden’s GDP and economic health.

How does the latest consumption reading affect Sweden’s monetary policy?

The 0.30% growth suggests moderate spending, supporting the Riksbank’s cautious approach to interest rates amid inflation control efforts.

What are the main risks to Sweden’s consumption outlook?

Risks include persistent inflation, further monetary tightening, and external shocks such as geopolitical tensions impacting consumer confidence.

Final Takeaway: Sweden’s November household consumption growth signals a steady but cautious consumer environment, balancing inflation pressures and monetary tightening. The outlook remains mixed, with inflation trends and policy decisions set to shape the next phase of economic momentum.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 11/13/25