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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SwedenSweden Retail Sales YoY fell to 6.2% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Sweden Retail Sales YoY fell to 6.2% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 1.5% from June's 7.7% reading. The print exceeded the 5.5% consensus by 0.7%. Retail Sales YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 7.3%, vs 4.43% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 88th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
6.2
Actual
5.5
Consensus
7.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 6.85
Actual: 6.2
Error: +0.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Sweden) was reported at 6.2% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5.5% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 7.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.65%, ranging from 1.5% to 8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 6.93%, up from the prior three at 3.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.79%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.95%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales YoY has averaged 2.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Sep 24).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - SE
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About Retail Sales YoY — Sweden
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 6.2 %, consensus 5.5 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 6.6 %. Before that (May 2026): 8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.64) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - SE Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | SE | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.30 | Low |
| 06:00 | SE | CPIF MoM | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.30 | Low |
| 06:00 | SE | CPIF YoY | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 06:00 | SE | Inflation Rate YoY | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | SE | Employed Persons | 5.507 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | SE | Unemployment Rate | 7.8 | 8.2 | 8.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | SE | Household Consumption MoM | 1.6 | -0.9 | -0.90 | Low | |
| 06:00 | SE | Household Consumption YoY | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Low | |