The latest Services PMI for Sweden (SE) released on December 3, 2025, recorded a robust 59.10, significantly surpassing the market estimate of 54.60 and last month’s 55.40. This figure, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, indicates a strong acceleration in the services sector’s growth, marking the highest reading since May 2025’s 54.20 and well above the 12-month average of approximately 53.70. The PMI’s expansionary threshold is 50, and this reading confirms a healthy pace of service activity, driven by increased consumer spending and business investment.

Drivers this month

• Strong domestic demand boosted new business orders by 6.50% MoM.
• Employment in services rose, reflecting confidence in sustained growth.
• Input price pressures eased slightly, reducing cost burdens.
• Supply chain delays diminished, improving delivery times.

Policy pulse

The PMI reading aligns with the Riksbank’s cautious stance on monetary policy. Inflation has moderated to 2.30% YoY, close to the 2% target, allowing the central bank to maintain steady interest rates. The strong services sector growth supports the case for a gradual normalization of policy without aggressive tightening.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Swedish krona (SEK) appreciated 0.40% against the euro within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose by 8 basis points, reflecting expectations of sustained economic momentum.

The Services PMI is a vital macroeconomic indicator reflecting the health of Sweden’s service industries, which constitute approximately 70% of GDP. The December reading of 59.10 contrasts sharply with the contractionary 48.80 recorded in August 2025, illustrating a strong rebound over the past four months. This recovery is consistent with other core indicators: retail sales rose 3.20% YoY in November, and consumer confidence indices climbed to a six-month high.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Riksbank’s policy rate remains at 1.75%, unchanged since September 2025, balancing inflation control and growth support. Financial conditions have eased slightly, with credit spreads narrowing and lending growth steady at 4.10% YoY. The PMI’s strength suggests that monetary policy is currently accommodative enough to sustain expansion without overheating.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Sweden’s fiscal stance remains moderately expansionary, with the government increasing infrastructure spending by 2.50% in the 2025 budget. The budget deficit narrowed to 1.80% of GDP in Q3 2025, supporting demand without risking fiscal overheating. Public sector services have benefited from this spending, contributing to the PMI’s rise.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: SEK/USD rose 0.35% within the first 30 minutes, while the OMX Stockholm 30 index gained 0.70%, reflecting investor optimism. Short-term interest rates climbed, pricing in a slightly earlier Riksbank rate hike than previously expected.

Looking ahead, the Services PMI’s strong reading suggests continued expansion in Sweden’s dominant economic sector. However, risks remain. The base case scenario (60% probability) expects PMI to stabilize around 57-59 in Q1 2026, supported by steady domestic demand and moderate inflation. A bullish scenario (20%) sees PMI climbing above 60, driven by stronger export demand and accelerated digital transformation in services. Conversely, a bearish scenario (20%) anticipates a slowdown to below 54 if geopolitical tensions escalate or global growth weakens, dampening external demand.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Heightened geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and trade uncertainties pose downside risks. However, Sweden’s diversified service economy and strong domestic fundamentals provide resilience. Energy price volatility remains a watchpoint but has so far not disrupted service sector growth.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Long-term trends favor digitalization and green services, which are expanding rapidly. The services sector’s shift toward technology-enabled offerings supports productivity gains and higher value-added output, underpinning sustainable growth beyond cyclical fluctuations.

Sweden’s December 2025 Services PMI reading of 59.10 signals robust sector growth and a positive macroeconomic outlook. The data from the Sigmanomics database confirms a strong rebound from mid-year lows and aligns with other indicators of economic health. Monetary and fiscal policies remain supportive, while external risks require monitoring. Financial markets have responded favorably, pricing in sustained momentum. Structural shifts toward digital and green services underpin long-term growth prospects. Overall, the services sector is poised to remain a key driver of Sweden’s economic expansion in 2026.

Key Markets Likely to React to Services PMI

The Services PMI is a bellwether for Sweden’s economic health, influencing currency, equity, and bond markets. The following tradable symbols historically track or react to Sweden’s services sector dynamics:

• SEKEUR – The Swedish krona’s exchange rate against the euro is sensitive to PMI-driven shifts in economic sentiment and monetary policy expectations.
• OMXS30 – Sweden’s benchmark equity index, heavily weighted toward service-oriented companies, often moves in tandem with PMI trends.
• USDSEK – Reflects cross-currency flows influenced by Sweden’s economic outlook and risk sentiment.
• BTCUSD – While less directly correlated, Bitcoin often reacts to shifts in risk appetite linked to macroeconomic data releases.
• ERIC-B.ST – Ericsson’s stock price is sensitive to Sweden’s economic environment, including service sector growth impacting telecom demand.

FAQs

What does the Sweden Services PMI indicate?

The Services PMI measures the health of Sweden’s service sector, indicating expansion above 50 and contraction below it.

How does the Services PMI affect monetary policy?

Strong PMI readings support gradual tightening or steady rates, while weak readings may prompt easing to stimulate growth.

Why is the Services PMI important for investors?

It signals economic momentum, influencing currency strength, equity valuations, and bond yields in Sweden.

Takeaway: Sweden’s December 2025 Services PMI surge to 59.10 signals robust economic momentum, supporting a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2026 growth and financial markets.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 12/3/25