Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SloveniaSlovenia Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 3.8% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Slovenia Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 3.8% in May 2026, up 0.4% from April's 3.4% reading. The reading matched expectations. Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY averaged 2.9%, vs 2.6% in the prior 3-month window. Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY is now the highest in 29 months.
Latest Release
3.8
Actual
3.7
Consensus
3.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.39 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 3.5
Actual: 3.8
Error: -0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY (Slovenia) was reported at 3.8% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.7% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.78%, ranging from 2.4% to 3.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3%, up from the prior three at 2.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.4%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.67%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 2.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.39%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
SHARE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY - SI
Loading chart data...
About Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY — Slovenia
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the annual change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country. It takes into account the impact of price changes on both domestic and international markets, providing a more comprehensive view of inflation. This indicator is widely used by policymakers and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy and investment strategies. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY indicates a rise in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 3.8 %, consensus 3.7 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3.4 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 2.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.