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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ThailandThailand Imports YoY climbed to 50.4% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Thailand Imports YoY climbed to 50.4% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 25.3% from August's 25.1% reading. The print exceeded the 31.3% consensus by 19.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 29.51%. Over the past 3 months, Imports YoY averaged 30.9%, vs 47.65% in the prior 3-month window. Imports YoY is now the highest in 20 months.
Latest Release
50.4
Actual
31.3
Consensus
25.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±6.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 27.95
Actual: 50.4
Error: -22.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/THB | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Imports YoY (Thailand) was reported at 50.4% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 31.3% by 19.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 25.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 28.79%, ranging from 16.3% to 50.4% across 14 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 37.4%, down from the prior three at 42.37%. Volatility over the past year (σ 12.14%) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.02%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Imports YoY has averaged 23.88%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, negatively correlated (Bearish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 6.4%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 25, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Imports YoY - TH
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About Imports YoY — Thailand
DEFINITION
Imports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the total value of goods and services imported into a country. It provides valuable insights into a country's economic health and its trade relationships with other nations. A positive Imports YoY indicates an increase in imports, which can stimulate economic growth and consumer demand. On the other hand, a negative Imports YoY may suggest a decline in economic activity and potential trade imbalances. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the overall health of a country's economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 50.4 %, consensus 31.3 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 25.1 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 36.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - TH Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:00 | TH | Industrial Production YoY | 2.05 | 4.44 | 2.8 | 2.42 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Private Investment MoM | 21.6 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 10.70 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Current Account | -1.6 | 2.4 | 0.97 | -0.32 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Private Consumption MoM | -2.2 | 0.4 | -0.6 | -1.40 | Low |
| 10:20 | TH | Retail Sales YoY | 15.2 | -5.9 | -9 | 3.10 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | TH | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.3 | 54.5 | 55.35 | Low | |