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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ThailandThailand Private Consumption MoM fell to -2.2% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Thailand Private Consumption MoM fell to -2.2% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 2.6% from August's 0.4% reading. The reading missed the -0.6% consensus by 1.6%. Private Consumption MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Private Consumption MoM averaged 0.8%, vs -0.13% in the prior 3-month window. Private Consumption MoM is now the lowest in 35 months.
Latest Release
-2.2
Actual
-0.6
Consensus
0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.36 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.65
Actual: 0.4
Error: +0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/THB | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Private Consumption MoM (Thailand) was reported at -2.2% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.6% by 1.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.28%, ranging from -2.1% to 2.5% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.9%, up from the prior three at -1.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.34%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.7%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Private Consumption MoM has averaged 0.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/THB (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.36%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Private Consumption MoM - TH
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About Private Consumption MoM — Thailand
DEFINITION
Private Consumption MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the amount of money spent by individuals and households on goods and services within a specific country. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall health of the economy, as consumer spending is a major driver of economic growth. A positive change in Private Consumption MoM indicates an increase in consumer confidence and a potential boost to economic activity, while a negative change may suggest a decrease in consumer spending and potential economic slowdown. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors as it can provide important signals about the direction of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -2.2 %, consensus -0.6 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.4 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 1.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/THB (Bullish USD, r=0.49) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - TH Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:00 | TH | Industrial Production YoY | 2.05 | 4.44 | 2.8 | 2.42 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Private Investment MoM | 21.6 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 10.70 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Current Account | -1.6 | 2.4 | 0.97 | -0.32 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Private Consumption MoM | -2.2 | 0.4 | -0.6 | -1.40 | Low |
| 10:20 | TH | Retail Sales YoY | 15.2 | -5.9 | -9 | 3.10 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | TH | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.3 | 54.5 | 55.35 | Low | |