Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ThailandThailand Retail Sales YoY fell to 21.2% in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Thailand Retail Sales YoY fell to 21.2% in March 2026, released May 2026, down 10.2% from February's 31.4% reading. The reading missed the 65.0% consensus by 43.8%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 33.33%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 47.7%, vs 42.97% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 50th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
21.2
Actual
65
Consensus
31.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±23.16 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 76.7
Actual: 21.2
Error: +55.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/THB | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Thailand) was reported at 21.2% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 65% by 43.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of 31.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 34.09%, ranging from -5.6% to 75.4% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 47.83%, up from the prior three at 43.93%. Volatility over the past year (σ 23.55%) is higher than the prior year (σ 9.64%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales YoY has averaged 16.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/THB (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 23.16%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 24).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
SHARE
Retail Sales YoY - TH
Loading chart data...
About Retail Sales YoY — Thailand
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 21.2 %, consensus 65 %. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 20 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 75.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.