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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Participation Rate climbed to 52.7% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Turkey Participation Rate climbed to 52.7% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.1% from August's 52.6% reading. The reading matched the 52.9% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.8%. Over the past 3 months, Participation Rate averaged 52.63%, vs 52.6% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 22nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
52.7
Actual
52.9
Consensus
52.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.28 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 52.82
Actual: 52.7
Error: +0.12
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/TRY | ▲ Direct | +0.72 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Participation Rate (Turkey) was reported at 52.7% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 52.9% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 52.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 52.85%, ranging from 52.1% to 53.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 52.57%, down from the prior three at 52.7%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.52%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.45%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Participation Rate has averaged 53.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/TRY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.28%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Nov 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Participation Rate - TR
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About Participation Rate — Turkey
DEFINITION
The participation rate is a financial indicator that measures the percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the level of labor force participation in an economy and can provide insights into the overall health and strength of the job market. A higher participation rate is generally seen as a positive sign of a robust economy, while a lower rate may indicate a weaker job market. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers to inform decisions related to employment and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 52.7 %, consensus 52.9 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 52.5 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 52.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/TRY (Bullish USD, r=0.72) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Economic Confidence Index | 97.3 | 101.3 | 101 | 99.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 25.5 | 15.9 | 27 | 26.25 | Low |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 0.4 | -0.03 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.9 | 48 | 48.10 | Low | |