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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core PCE Price Index YoY fell to 3.3% in June 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Core PCE Price Index YoY fell to 3.3% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.1% from May's 3.4% reading. The reading matched the 3.3% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.97%. Over the past 3 months, Core PCE Price Index YoY averaged 3.35%, vs 3.08% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 91st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.3
Actual
3.3
Consensus
3.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 3.4
Actual: 3.4
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core PCE Price Index YoY (United States) was reported at 3.3% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.3% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.03%, ranging from 2.8% to 3.4% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.27%, up from the prior three at 2.9%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.21%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.1%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Core PCE Price Index YoY has averaged 2.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Core PCE Price Index YoY - US
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About Core PCE Price Index YoY — United States
DEFINITION
The Core PCE Price Index YoY is a key financial indicator used to measure the change in prices of goods and services over a one-year period, excluding volatile food and energy prices. It is considered a more accurate measure of inflation as it reflects the underlying trend in consumer spending. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it provides insights into the overall health of the economy and helps inform monetary policy decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 3.3 %, consensus 3.3 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 3.4 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 3.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.47) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |