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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core PCE Price Index YoY climbed to 3.4% in May 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Core PCE Price Index YoY climbed to 3.4% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.1% from April's 3.3% reading. The reading matched the 3.4% consensus. Core PCE Price Index YoY has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Core PCE Price Index YoY averaged 3.17%, vs 3.05% in the prior 3-month window. Core PCE Price Index YoY is now the highest in 30 months.
Latest Release
3.4
Actual
3.4
Consensus
3.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 3.4
Actual: 3.4
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core PCE Price Index YoY (United States) was reported at 3.4% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.4% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.03%, ranging from 2.8% to 3.4% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.27%, up from the prior three at 2.9%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.21%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.1%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Core PCE Price Index YoY has averaged 2.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Import Prices MoM (Jul 17) and Building Permits (Jul 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Core PCE Price Index YoY - US
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About Core PCE Price Index YoY — United States
DEFINITION
The Core PCE Price Index YoY is a key financial indicator used to measure the change in prices of goods and services over a one-year period, excluding volatile food and energy prices. It is considered a more accurate measure of inflation as it reflects the underlying trend in consumer spending. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it provides insights into the overall health of the economy and helps inform monetary policy decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 3.4 %, consensus 3.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3.3 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 3.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.47) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.70 | Low | |