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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core PCE Price Index YoY held to 3.0% in August 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Core PCE Price Index YoY held to 3.0% in August 2026, released September 2026. The reading missed the 3.3% consensus by 0.3%. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.1%. Over the past 3 months, Core PCE Price Index YoY averaged 3.3%, vs 3.22% in the prior 3-month window. Core PCE Price Index YoY is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
3
Actual
3.3
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 3.3
Actual: 3
Error: +0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core PCE Price Index YoY (United States) was reported at 3% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.3% by 0.3%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.15%, ranging from 2.8% to 3.4% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.2%, down from the prior three at 3.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.19%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.12%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Core PCE Price Index YoY has averaged 2.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Core PCE Price Index YoY - US
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About Core PCE Price Index YoY — United States
DEFINITION
The Core PCE Price Index YoY is a key financial indicator used to measure the change in prices of goods and services over a one-year period, excluding volatile food and energy prices. It is considered a more accurate measure of inflation as it reflects the underlying trend in consumer spending. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it provides insights into the overall health of the economy and helps inform monetary policy decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 3 %, consensus 3.3 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 3.3 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 3.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |