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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core PCE Price Index YoY held to 3.3% in July 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Core PCE Price Index YoY held to 3.3% in July 2026, released August 2026. The reading matched the 3.3% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.03%. Over the past 3 months, Core PCE Price Index YoY averaged 3.35%, vs 3.15% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.3
Actual
3.3
Consensus
3.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.04 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 3.3
Actual: 3.3
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core PCE Price Index YoY (United States) was reported at 3.3% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.3% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.14%, ranging from 2.8% to 3.4% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.33%, up from the prior three at 3.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.21%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.11%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Core PCE Price Index YoY has averaged 2.93%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.04%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Core PCE Price Index YoY - US
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About Core PCE Price Index YoY — United States
DEFINITION
The Core PCE Price Index YoY is a key financial indicator used to measure the change in prices of goods and services over a one-year period, excluding volatile food and energy prices. It is considered a more accurate measure of inflation as it reflects the underlying trend in consumer spending. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it provides insights into the overall health of the economy and helps inform monetary policy decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3.3 %, consensus 3.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 3.3 %. Before that (May 2026): 3.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |