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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Corporate Profits QoQ fell to -0.4% in Q1 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Corporate Profits QoQ fell to -0.4% in Q1 2026, released May 2026, down 6.1% from December's 5.7% reading. The reading missed the 5.7% consensus by 6.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.12%. Corporate Profits QoQ is now the lowest in 9 months.
Latest Release
-0.4
Actual
5.7
Consensus
5.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 5.7
Actual: -0.4
Error: +6.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Corporate Profits QoQ (United States) was reported at -0.4% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.7% by 6.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.4%, up from the prior three at -1.63%. In May readings over the past 3 years, Corporate Profits QoQ has averaged -1.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Corporate Profits QoQ - US
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About Corporate Profits QoQ — United States
DEFINITION
Corporate Profits QoQ (Quarter over Quarter) is a financial indicator that measures the change in a company's profits from one quarter to the next. It provides valuable insight into a company's financial performance and can be used to assess its growth and profitability over time. This indicator is commonly used by investors and analysts to evaluate the financial health of a company and make informed investment decisions. A positive QoQ growth in corporate profits indicates a strong and healthy business, while a negative growth may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -0.4 %, consensus 5.7 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 5.7 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 4.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.