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Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Crude Oil Refinery Inputs fell to 13,939 Thousand Barrels/Day in September 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationWeeklyReleased September 2026
US Crude Oil Refinery Inputs fell to 13,939 Thousand Barrels/Day in September 2026, down 5 Thousand Barrels/Day from August's 13,944 Thousand Barrels/Day reading.
Latest Release
13939.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
13944.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Crude Oil Refinery Inputs (United States) was reported at 13,939.00 Thousand Barrels/Day in September 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 13,944.00 Thousand Barrels/Day. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 13,749.46 Thousand Barrels/Day, ranging from 13,215.00 Thousand Barrels/Day to 13,947.00 Thousand Barrels/Day across 48 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a weekly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 13,943.33 Thousand Barrels/Day, up from the prior three at 13,845.00 Thousand Barrels/Day. Volatility over the past year (σ 123.93 Thousand Barrels/Day) is higher than the prior year (σ 100.23 Thousand Barrels/Day). In September readings over the past 3 years, Crude Oil Refinery Inputs has averaged 13,528.45 Thousand Barrels/Day.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Oct 21) and EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Oct 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Crude Oil Refinery Inputs - US
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About Crude Oil Refinery Inputs — United States
DEFINITION
US Crude Oil Refinery Inputs for the week ending September 11 registered at 13944 K bbl/d, slightly missing the previous week's 13947 K bbl/d. This marks a marginal decline from August 28's 13862 K bbl/d, indicating a stable but slightly lower throughput. Refinery activity remains steady ahead of upcoming inventory and demand reports. Updated 9/23/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 13,939 Thousand Barrels/Day. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 13,944 Thousand Barrels/Day. Before that (Sep 2026): 13,947 Thousand Barrels/Day.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.57) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, October 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.221 | 1.288 | 1.3 | 1.26 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -5.2 | -5.9 | 1.9 | -1.65 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.4 | 1.403 | 1.39 | 1.39 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | -0.2 | -2.1 | -0.7 | -0.47 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -11.3 | -4.7 | 1 | -5.15 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | -7.3 | 0.3 | -0.5 | -3.90 | Medium |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -4.93 | -11.12 | -1.3 | -3.12 | Medium |
| Wednesday, October 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -8.557 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium | |
| Thursday, October 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.5 | 200 | 197.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1710 | 1720 | 1713.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 200 | 187.50 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 14 | 11 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 20 | 18 | 21.00 | Low | |
| Friday, October 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 58.4 | 57.6 | 58.25 | Medium | |