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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Manufacturing Prices climbed to 77.9 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US ISM Manufacturing Prices climbed to 77.9 in September 2026, released October 2026, up 6.8 from August's 71.1 reading. The print exceeded the 72.3 consensus by 5.6. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 68.11. Over the past 3 months, ISM Manufacturing Prices averaged 71.1, vs 83.35 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 84th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
77.9
Actual
72.3
Consensus
71.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.9
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 72.27
Actual: 77.9
Error: -5.63
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing Prices (United States) was reported at 77.90 in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 72.30 by 5.60. The reading rose from the previous value of 71.10. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 68.50, ranging from 58.00 to 82.10 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 73.37, down from the prior three at 76.97. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.87) is higher than the prior year (σ 6.77). In October readings over the past 3 years, ISM Manufacturing Prices has averaged 62.70.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.90.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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ISM Manufacturing Prices - US
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About ISM Manufacturing Prices — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Manufacturing Prices is a leading economic indicator that measures the changes in prices of goods and services in the manufacturing sector. It provides valuable insights into inflationary pressures and can help businesses make informed decisions about pricing strategies and supply chain management. This indicator is widely used by investors, policymakers, and analysts to gauge the health of the manufacturing industry and the overall economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 77.9, consensus 72.3. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 71.1. Before that (Jul 2026): 71.1.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.74) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |