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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Manufacturing Prices fell to 82.1 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US ISM Manufacturing Prices fell to 82.1 in May 2026, released June 2026, down 2.5 from April's 84.6 reading. The reading matched the 85.5 consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 66.42. Over the past 3 months, ISM Manufacturing Prices averaged 81.45, vs 62.67 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
82.1
Actual
85.5
Consensus
84.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.1
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 88.15
Actual: 82.1
Error: +6.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing Prices (United States) was reported at 82.10 in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 85.50 by 3.40. The reading fell from the previous value of 84.60. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 65.53, ranging from 58.00 to 82.10 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 76.97, up from the prior three at 58.67. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.23) is comparable than the prior year (σ 7.77). In June readings over the past 3 years, ISM Manufacturing Prices has averaged 69.50.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.10.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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ISM Manufacturing Prices - US
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About ISM Manufacturing Prices — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Manufacturing Prices is a leading economic indicator that measures the changes in prices of goods and services in the manufacturing sector. It provides valuable insights into inflationary pressures and can help businesses make informed decisions about pricing strategies and supply chain management. This indicator is widely used by investors, policymakers, and analysts to gauge the health of the manufacturing industry and the overall economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 82.1, consensus 85.5. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 84.6. Before that (Mar 2026): 78.3.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.68) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |