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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS JOLTs Job Quits fell to 3.06M in July 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased September 2026
US JOLTs Job Quits fell to 3.06M in July 2026, released September 2026, down 0.16M from June's 3.21M reading. The reading matched the 3.21M consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.15M. Over the past 3 months, JOLTs Job Quits averaged 3.15M, vs 3.06M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 11th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.056
Actual
3.21
Consensus
3.213
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.13 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 3.28
Actual: 3.06
Error: +0.23
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.83 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.71 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
JOLTs Job Quits (United States) was reported at 3.06 million in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.21 million by 0.15 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.21 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.10 million, ranging from 2.97 million to 3.23 million across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.12 million, up from the prior three at 3.02 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.08 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.09 million). In September readings over the past 3 years, JOLTs Job Quits has averaged 3.16 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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JOLTs Job Quits - US
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About JOLTs Job Quits — United States
DEFINITION
Rate The JOLTs Job Quits Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of employees who voluntarily leave their jobs in a given time period. This data is used to assess the overall health of the job market and can provide insights into employee confidence and job market trends. A high quits rate may indicate a strong economy with ample job opportunities, while a low rate may suggest a weaker job market. This information is valuable for businesses, policymakers, and investors in making informed decisions about hiring, retention, and economic outlook.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3.056 M, consensus 3.21 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 3.232 M. Before that (May 2026): 3.065 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.83) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |