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Data from World Bank. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Real interest rate (%) fell to -1.28 Percentage (%) in January 2021
World BankYearlyReleased January 2021
US Real interest rate (%) fell to -1.28 Percentage (%) in January 2021, down 3.47 Percentage (%) from December's 2.19 Percentage (%) reading.
Latest Release
-1.28
Latest (2021)
2.19
Previous
World Bank
Source
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Real Interest Rate (%) (United States) was reported at -1.09 Percent in December 2021. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.85 Percent. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a yearly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.83 Percent, down from the prior three at 2.49 Percent.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Barkin Speech (Jun 28) and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2021.
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Real interest rate (%) - US
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About Real interest rate (%) — United States
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released annually.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, June 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 62.7 | 50 | 48.90 | Medium | |