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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
UruguayUruguay Balance of Trade fell to -71.7M in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Uruguay Balance of Trade fell to -71.7M in June 2026, released July 2026, down 210.1M from May's 138.4M reading. The print exceeded the -90.8M consensus by 19.1M. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 480.5M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -146.2M, vs -162.46M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 48th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-71.7
Actual
-90.8
Consensus
138.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±157.95 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -420.4
Actual: 138.4
Error: -558.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Uruguay) was reported at -71.70 million in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -90.80 million by 19.10 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 138.40 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -20.67 million, ranging from -430.80 million to 476.44 million across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -96.80 million, down from the prior three at -80.28 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 226.78 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 176.51 million). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 66.94 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 157.95 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Balance of Trade - UY
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About Balance of Trade — Uruguay
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -71.7 M, consensus -90.8 M. Prior reading (May 2026): 138.4 M. Before that (Apr 2026): -430.8 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - UY Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:00 | UY | Balance of Trade | -71.7 | 138.4 | -90.8 | -81.25 | Low |