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Uruguay Balance of Trade fell to -430.8M in April 2026, released May 2026, down 13.6M from March's -417.2M reading. The print exceeded the -510M consensus by 79.2M. Balance of Trade has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -207.6M, vs -80.28M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 31 months.
across last 12 releases
May 2026
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
Balance of Trade (Uruguay) was reported at -430.80 million in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -510.00 million by 79.20 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -417.20 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8.57 million, ranging from -430.80 million to 476.44 million across 11 releases.
The trailing three releases averaged -167.00 million, down from the prior three at -130.81 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 246.18 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 132.58 million). In May readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -286.87 million.
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 157.95 million.
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -430.8 M, consensus -510 M. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -417.2 M. Before that (Feb 2026): 2.01 M.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
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