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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Balance of Trade climbed to 17.75B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
South Africa Balance of Trade climbed to 17.75B in June 2026, released July 2026, up 13.31B from May's 4.44B reading. The reading missed the 32B consensus by 14.25B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 19.67B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 6.69B, vs 26.03B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 52nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
17.75
Actual
32
Consensus
4.44
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±10.71 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 19.08
Actual: -1.79
Error: +20.87
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (South Africa) was reported at 17.75 billion in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 32.00 billion by 14.25 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.44 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 18.21 billion, ranging from -1.79 billion to 37.70 billion across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 16.76 billion, down from the prior three at 23.40 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 12.12 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 11.88 billion). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 13.32 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 10.71 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Balance of Trade - ZA
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About Balance of Trade — South Africa
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 17.75 B, consensus 32 B. Prior reading (May 2026): -1.79 B. Before that (Apr 2026): 15.16 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | ZA | Balance of Trade | 17.75 | 4.44 | 32 | 24.88 | Medium |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | ZA | ABSA Manufacturing PMI | 47.3 | 49 | 51.95 | Low | |