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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Balance of Trade climbed to 20.14B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
South Africa Balance of Trade climbed to 20.14B in July 2026, released August 2026, up 2.91B from June's 17.23B reading. The print exceeded the 19B consensus by 1.14B. Balance of Trade has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 7.98B, vs 27.98B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 52nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
20.14
Actual
19
Consensus
17.23
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±10.13 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 10.24
Actual: 20.14
Error: -9.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (South Africa) was reported at 20.14 billion in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 19.00 billion by 1.14 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 17.23 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 18.15 billion, ranging from -1.79 billion to 37.70 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 12.03 billion, down from the prior three at 20.46 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 11.56 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 11.94 billion). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 19.35 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 10.13 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Sep 23) and Inflation Rate YoY (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Balance of Trade - ZA
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About Balance of Trade — South Africa
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 20.14 B, consensus 19 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 17.75 B. Before that (May 2026): -1.79 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | ZA | Inflation Expectations | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.40 | Low | |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.7 | 1.65 | Low | |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales YoY | 1.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low | |