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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Balance of Trade climbed to 19.8B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
South Africa Balance of Trade climbed to 19.8B in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.83B from August's 18.97B reading. The reading missed the 25.4B consensus by 5.6B. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 1.96B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 20.31B, vs 10.37B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 44th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
19.8
Actual
25.4
Consensus
18.97
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±10.71 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.22
Actual: 20.47
Error: -20.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (South Africa) was reported at 19.80 billion in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 25.40 billion by 5.60 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 18.97 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 19.65 billion, ranging from -1.79 billion to 37.70 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 19.45 billion, up from the prior three at 16.76 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 10.65 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 12.07 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 10.02 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 10.71 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Nov 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Balance of Trade - ZA
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About Balance of Trade — South Africa
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 19.8 B, consensus 25.4 B. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 20.47 B. Before that (Jul 2026): 20.14 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | ZA | Private Sector Credit YoY | 6.23 | 7.47 | 7.5 | 6.87 | Low |
| 09:30 | ZA | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.2 | 5 | 5.7 | 5.95 | Low |
| 09:30 | ZA | Producer Price Index MoM | 1 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Low |