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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Balance of Trade fell to 15.16B in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
South Africa Balance of Trade fell to 15.16B in April 2026, released May 2026, down 15.05B from March's 30.21B reading. The reading matched the 15B consensus. Balance of Trade has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 34.4B, vs 23.4B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 31st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
15.16
Actual
15
Consensus
30.21
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±10.71 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 24.46
Actual: 15.16
Error: +9.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (South Africa) was reported at 15.16 billion in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 15.00 billion by 0.16 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 30.21 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 20.69 billion, ranging from 3.97 billion to 37.70 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 20.46 billion, down from the prior three at 25.49 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 9.67 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 11.94 billion). In May readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 13.24 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 10.71 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Balance of Trade - ZA
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About Balance of Trade — South Africa
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 15.16 B, consensus 15 B. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 31.87 B. Before that (Feb 2026): 36.92 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.41) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.