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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Business Confidence fell to 39.0% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
South Africa Business Confidence fell to 39.0% in April 2026, released June 2026, down 8.0% from March's 47.0% reading. The reading matched the 38.0% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 91.76%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 72.43%, vs 130.18% in the prior 3-month window. Business Confidence is now the lowest in 18 months.
Latest Release
39
Actual
38
Consensus
47
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 44
Actual: 39
Error: +5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| USD/ZAR | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (South Africa) was reported at 123.6% in June 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 131.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 83.31%, ranging from 39% to 132.3% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 69.87%, down from the prior three at 102.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 41.99%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 38.61%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 70.68%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/ZAR, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Business Confidence - ZA
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About Business Confidence — South Africa
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 124.1 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 39 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 39 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.67) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.