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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Business Confidence fell to 38.0% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
South Africa Business Confidence fell to 38.0% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 1.0% from June's 39.0% reading. The print exceeded the 34.0% consensus by 4.0%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 99.46%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 124.17%, vs 69.77% in the prior 3-month window. Business Confidence is now the lowest in 24 months.
Latest Release
38
Actual
34
Consensus
39
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.5 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 34
Actual: 38
Error: -4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (South Africa) was reported at 38% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 34% by 4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 39%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 89.09%, ranging from 38% to 132.3% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 95.67%, up from the prior three at 72.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 42.32%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 38.57%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 38.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.5%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Sep 23) and Inflation Rate YoY (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Business Confidence - ZA
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About Business Confidence — South Africa
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 38 %, consensus 34 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 125.4 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 125.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.71) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | ZA | Inflation Expectations | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.40 | Low | |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.7 | 1.65 | Low | |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales YoY | 1.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low | |