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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Core Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.5% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
South Africa Core Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.5% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.1% from June's 0.6% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.2% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.37%. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.4%, vs 0.67% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 76th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.21 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -0.05
Actual: 0.5
Error: -0.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/ZAR | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate MoM (South Africa) was reported at 0.5% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.34%, ranging from 0.1% to 0.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.43%, down from the prior three at 0.5%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.21%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.3%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/ZAR (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.21%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Sep 23) and Inflation Rate YoY (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate MoM - ZA
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About Core Inflation Rate MoM — South Africa
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, on a monthly basis. It provides insight into the underlying inflation trends and helps policymakers and investors make informed decisions about monetary policy and market strategies. This indicator is considered a more reliable measure of inflation as it eliminates the impact of temporary price fluctuations, providing a clearer picture of the overall inflationary pressures in the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.6 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/ZAR (Bullish USD, r=0.68) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | ZA | Inflation Expectations | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.40 | Low | |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.7 | 1.65 | Low | |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales YoY | 1.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low | |