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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Core Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.5% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
South Africa Core Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.5% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.3% from March's 0.8% reading. The print came in cooler than the 1.3% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.31%. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.75%, vs 0.2% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 83rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
1.3
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.11 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1.6
Actual: 0.5
Error: +1.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/ZAR | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate MoM (South Africa) was reported at 0.5% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.3% by 0.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.28%, ranging from 0% to 0.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.5%, up from the prior three at 0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.2%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.3%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/ZAR (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.11%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate MoM - ZA
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About Core Inflation Rate MoM — South Africa
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, on a monthly basis. It provides insight into the underlying inflation trends and helps policymakers and investors make informed decisions about monetary policy and market strategies. This indicator is considered a more reliable measure of inflation as it eliminates the impact of temporary price fluctuations, providing a clearer picture of the overall inflationary pressures in the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 1.3 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.8 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/ZAR (Bullish USD, r=0.65) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.