Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Core Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.6% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
South Africa Core Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.6% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.4% from May's 0.2% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.2% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.32%. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.35%, vs 0.6% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 85th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.6
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.12 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.35
Actual: 0.6
Error: -0.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/ZAR | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate MoM (South Africa) was reported at 0.6% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.33%, ranging from 0.1% to 0.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.43%, up from the prior three at 0.37%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.21%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.3%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/ZAR (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Core Inflation Rate MoM - ZA
Loading chart data...
About Core Inflation Rate MoM — South Africa
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, on a monthly basis. It provides insight into the underlying inflation trends and helps policymakers and investors make informed decisions about monetary policy and market strategies. This indicator is considered a more reliable measure of inflation as it eliminates the impact of temporary price fluctuations, providing a clearer picture of the overall inflationary pressures in the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.6 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/ZAR (Bullish USD, r=0.73) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30 | ZA | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 09:30 | ZA | Producer Price Index YoY | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 7.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | ZA | Budget Balance | 80.13 | -14.62 | 57 | 68.56 | Low |