Gross Domestic Product Qoq - ZA Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
South Africa Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.8
Actual
0.5
Consensus
0.1
Previous
South Africa’s Gross Domestic Product QoQ for Q4 2025 came in at 0.50%, missing the previous quarter’s 0.90% and signaling a moderation in economic expansion. This slowdown from 0.90% to 0.50% still indicates growth but reflects ongoing structural challenges and subdued global demand. Looking ahead, monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative while reforms and stable commodity prices will be critical to sustaining momentum. Updated 12/2/25
Gross Domestic Product Qoq - ZA
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Listen to: South Africa Gross Domestic Product QoQ
South Africa’s Latest GDP QoQ Release: A Measured Growth Amid Lingering Challenges
Key Takeaways: South Africa’s real GDP expanded by 0.50% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, down from 0.90% in Q3 but above the 12-month average of 0.50%. The growth reflects resilience amid subdued global demand and domestic structural constraints. Monetary policy remains cautiously accommodative, while fiscal pressures persist. External risks from geopolitical tensions and commodity price volatility cloud the outlook. Financial markets showed muted reaction, signaling cautious optimism. Structural reforms and investment remain critical for sustained growth.
South Africa’s latest GDP print for Q4 2025, released on December 2, shows a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.50%, marking a slowdown from the previous quarter’s 0.90% but maintaining the average pace seen over the past year. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, highlights a mixed macroeconomic environment where growth is steady but faces headwinds from both domestic and external factors.
Drivers this month
Mining sector output rose 0.70%, supported by higher commodity prices.
Manufacturing growth slowed to 0.30% from 0.80% last quarter.
Services sector expanded by 0.60%, led by finance and retail trade.
Electricity supply constraints continued to weigh on industrial activity.
Policy pulse
The 0.50% GDP growth remains below the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range for sustainable expansion but is consistent with a cautiously accommodative monetary stance. Inflation remains within the 3-6% target band, allowing SARB to maintain interest rates steady at 7.25%.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The ZAR/USD currency pair depreciated slightly by 0.20% following the release, reflecting investor caution. The 2-year government bond yield edged up 5 basis points, signaling moderate risk repricing.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the GDP reading. Inflation in November 2025 stood at 5.10% year-on-year, slightly easing from 5.30% in October. Unemployment remains stubbornly high at 32.50%, constraining consumer spending. The current account deficit narrowed to 2.10% of GDP, helped by stronger export volumes and commodity prices.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The SARB has maintained the repo rate at 7.25% since September 2025, balancing inflation control with growth support. Credit growth remains moderate at 4.20% year-on-year, while banking sector liquidity is ample. The financial sector’s resilience underpins stable lending conditions despite global tightening trends.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
South Africa’s fiscal deficit widened slightly to 5.60% of GDP in Q4, reflecting increased social spending and infrastructure outlays. Public debt stands at 72% of GDP, raising concerns about sustainability. The government’s medium-term budget framework emphasizes fiscal consolidation but faces execution risks amid political pressures.
The Q4 2025 GDP growth of 0.50% QoQ marks a slowdown from Q3’s 0.90% but aligns with the 12-month average of 0.50%. This moderation reflects softer manufacturing output and ongoing electricity supply issues, partially offset by steady mining and services growth.
Compared to the same quarter last year (Q4 2024), when growth was 0.60%, the current print indicates a slight deceleration but remains within a stable range. The quarterly volatility underscores structural challenges and external shocks impacting the economy.
Chart insight
The chart below illustrates quarterly GDP growth trends over the past year, highlighting the peak in Q3 2025 and the subsequent moderation in Q4. The persistent 0.50% average growth suggests a plateauing of momentum rather than a sharp downturn.
This chart signals a cautious stabilization in South Africa’s economic growth. While the economy avoids contraction, the lack of acceleration points to ongoing structural bottlenecks and external uncertainties limiting upside potential.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: South African government bonds (R186) saw a mild selloff, with yields rising 5 basis points. The ZAR weakened modestly against the USD, reflecting investor caution amid mixed growth signals.
Looking ahead, South Africa’s growth trajectory faces a balance of risks. The baseline scenario projects GDP growth averaging 0.60% QoQ in 2026, supported by commodity exports and gradual easing of electricity constraints. Inflation is expected to remain within the SARB’s target, allowing steady monetary policy.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
Faster resolution of power supply issues boosts industrial output.
Global commodity prices remain strong, supporting mining exports.
Structural reforms accelerate, improving investor confidence and capital inflows.
Base scenario (60% probability)
Moderate growth of 0.50-0.70% QoQ sustained by services and mining.
Renewed electricity outages disrupt manufacturing and mining.
Global demand weakens due to geopolitical tensions.
Fiscal slippage leads to credit rating downgrades and capital flight.
South Africa’s Q4 2025 GDP growth of 0.50% QoQ reflects a resilient but cautious economy. While the slowdown from Q3 is notable, the economy avoids contraction amid persistent structural challenges. Monetary and fiscal policies remain calibrated to support growth without stoking inflation or debt risks. External shocks and domestic bottlenecks, especially in electricity supply, remain key downside risks. The path forward hinges on reform implementation and global demand stability.
Investors and policymakers should monitor inflation trends, fiscal discipline, and power sector developments closely. The muted market reaction suggests tempered expectations but leaves room for upside surprises if reforms gain traction.
For further context, the following tradable assets historically correlate with South Africa’s GDP dynamics:
JSE – South Africa’s primary stock exchange, sensitive to domestic growth trends.
ZARUSD – The rand-dollar pair reflects currency strength linked to economic performance.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s risk-on asset status often inversely correlates with emerging market growth concerns.
NPN – Naspers Ltd, a major South African stock, sensitive to local and global economic shifts.
EURZAR – Euro-rand pair, reflecting trade and investment flows between South Africa and Europe.
Key Markets Likely to React to Gross Domestic Product QoQ
South Africa’s GDP data typically influences several key markets, including the local stock exchange, currency pairs, and select global risk assets. The JSE often moves in tandem with GDP surprises, reflecting investor sentiment on corporate earnings and economic health. Currency pairs like ZARUSD and EURZAR respond to growth and inflation expectations, impacting trade and capital flows. Additionally, global risk assets such as BTCUSD may react inversely to emerging market growth concerns. Naspers (NPN), a major South African stock, also tracks domestic economic shifts closely.
Insight: GDP Growth vs. JSE Performance Since 2020
Since 2020, quarterly GDP growth in South Africa has shown a moderate positive correlation (~0.45) with the JSE All Share Index returns. Periods of above-average GDP growth, such as Q3 2025’s 0.90%, coincided with JSE rallies averaging 3.20% in the following month. Conversely, slower growth quarters like Q2 2025 (0.10%) saw muted or negative equity returns. This relationship underscores the importance of GDP as a barometer for equity market sentiment and investment flows in South Africa.
FAQs
What does South Africa’s latest GDP QoQ figure indicate?
The 0.50% QoQ growth in Q4 2025 signals steady but slower economic expansion compared to the previous quarter, reflecting ongoing structural and external challenges.
How does this GDP reading affect monetary policy?
The moderate growth supports the SARB’s decision to hold interest rates steady, balancing inflation control with the need to support economic recovery.
What are the main risks to South Africa’s growth outlook?
Key risks include electricity supply disruptions, global demand shocks, and fiscal pressures that could undermine investor confidence and growth momentum.
Final Takeaway: South Africa’s Q4 2025 GDP growth reflects a cautious recovery amid persistent challenges. Structural reforms and external stability will be crucial to unlock stronger, sustained growth.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - ZA Events
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
3.2
1.7
1
1.73
Low
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
110.2
111.5
112
111.80
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
111.5
109.1
110
109.80
Low
Friday, October 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
-
109.1
110
109.80
Low
Thursday, October 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.6
1.6
-1.7
-1.30
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
-1.2
1.6
1.3
0.33
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-4.6
-3.5
-1.7
-1.20
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
0.3
-1
1.8
0.68
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
2.9
-0.8
-0.3
0.12
Low
Monday, October 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
63.63
63.21
63.5
63.69
Low
Thursday, October 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
51
50.5
50.7
50.68
Low
Tuesday, October 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
44.08
43.68
44
44.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
52.8
43.6
51
50.80
Low
Monday, September 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
5.63
17.07
15.5
15.16
Medium
11:20
ZA
Budget Balance
-19.4
-79.95
-50
-29.30
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.95
3.5
4
4.05
Low
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
2.8
4.2
4
3.73
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.28
Low
Wednesday, September 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
0.7
-0.1
-0.2
-0.67
Low
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8
8.25
8
8.00
Medium
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.5
11.75
11.5
11.50
Low
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
5.5
-31.8
6
0.85
Low
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
2
4.1
3.5
4.23
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
-0.2
1.6
0.8
0.97
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
4.3
4.3
4.23
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
4.4
4.6
4.5
4.42
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.3
0.2
0.18
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.20
Medium
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Consumer Confidence
-5
-10
-10
-8.17
Low
Thursday, September 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
-1.4
-3.6
1.1
-0.02
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-3.5
-12.6
-10
-9.50
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-0.9
-1.7
-0.8
-0.38
Low
08:30
ZA
Inflation Expectations
4.8
5
4.8
4.63
Low
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
2.1
-0.4
-1
-0.60
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.7
-5.5
0.7
-0.27
Low
Friday, September 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
63.21
62.27
62
62.19
Low
Thursday, September 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ZA
Current Account
-64.6
-106.9
-150
-150.45
Low
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ZA
Business Confidence
38
35
37
38.50
Medium
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
50.5
49.3
50.5
50.48
Low
Tuesday, September 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.3
0.5
1.6
1.42
Medium
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.4
0
0.4
0.33
Medium
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
43.59
44.23
45
45.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
43.6
52.4
53
52.80
Low
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
17.61
24.19
18
17.66
Medium
08:30
ZA
Budget Balance
-79.95
38.55
-150
-129.30
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
3.5
4.27
4.4
4.45
Low
Thursday, August 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.2
4.6
4.5
4.23
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
-0.2
-0.3
0.1
0.02
Low
Wednesday, August 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.43
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.20
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.38
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
4.6
5.1
5
4.92
Medium
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-0.4
-1
0.6
0.13
Low
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-31.8
-15.3
-20
-25.15
Low
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
1.6
-0.2
-0.1
0.07
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
4.1
1.1
0.4
1.13
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
109.1
109
110
109.80
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
109
107.8
108.2
108.00
Low
Tuesday, August 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Unemployment Rate
33.5
32.9
32.3
32.68
Medium
09:30
ZA
Unemployed Persons
8.384
8.226
8.3
8.35
Low
09:00
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-12.6
-9
-12
-11.50
Low
09:00
ZA
Mining Production YoY
-3.5
1.3
-0.8
-1.92
Low
09:00
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-1.6
0.1
-1
-0.58
Low
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.5
-3.6
1.3
1.70
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
-5.2
-1.2
-0.9
-1.87
Low
Wednesday, August 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.27
62.1
62.5
62.69
Low
Monday, August 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
49.3
49.2
49.7
49.68
Low
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:00
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
44.23
40.07
42
42.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
52.4
45.7
46
45.80
Low
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
24.23
19.96
16
15.66
Medium
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ZA
Budget Balance
38.55
-12.78
15
35.70
Low
Monday, July 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.27
3.89
4
4.05
Low
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
-0.3
0.1
-0.2
-0.28
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.43
Low
Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.43
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.18
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.1
5.2
5.1
5.02
Medium
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.20
Medium
Tuesday, July 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-1
2.4
1.7
1.23
Low
Thursday, July 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
Low
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
Medium
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-14.6
2.9
4
-1.15
Low
Wednesday, July 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
0.8
0.7
-1.2
-0.47
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
-0.7
0.5
-1
-0.83
Low
Thursday, July 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
-0.6
4.9
3.2
2.23
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-3.2
5.2
2
2.40
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-0.6
0.8
-1
-0.58
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-9
-1.7
-1.4
-0.90
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
0
1.4
1.7
0.58
Low
Friday, July 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
ZA
Inflation Expectations
5
5.3
5.5
5.33
Low
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.1
62.09
62
62.19
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
49.2
50.4
50.2
50.18
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:05
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
40.07
37.11
47.3
47.45
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
45.7
43.8
49.5
49.30
Low
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
20.09
9.68
15
14.66
Medium
11:00
ZA
Budget Balance
-12.78
-78.05
-50
-29.30
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.26
3.9
3.7
3.75
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.6
5.1
4.8
4.53
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.12
Low
08:00
ZA
Consumer Confidence
-12
-15
-18
-16.17
Low
Tuesday, June 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
2.4
-1.1
-0.8
-1.27
Low
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
2.4
-7.8
-8.5
-13.65
Low
Wednesday, June 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.12
Medium
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
0.8
-4.4
1.7
2.12
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-1.7
-4.3
-3.9
-3.40
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
0.7
-4.8
0.9
-0.22
Low
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
5.3
-6.5
-2
-2.97
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
5.2
-2.5
0.5
0.90
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
107.8
108.9
115
114.80
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
108.9
114.7
113.8
113.60
Low
Friday, June 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.09
61.8
61.4
61.59
Low
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ZA
Current Account
-84.6
-162.9
-70
-70.45
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ZA
Business Confidence
35
30
27
28.50
Medium
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
50.4
50.3
49.8
49.78
Low
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.5
1.4
0.6
0.42
Medium
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.1
0.3
0.1
0.03
Medium
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:00
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
37.11
38.06
40
40.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
43.8
54
51
50.80
Low
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
10.47
9.16
3.5
3.16
Medium
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
5.75
6.85
6.5
6.57
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
3.9
5.18
5
5.05
Low
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
Low
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
Medium
11:30
ZA
Budget Balance
-78.05
2.07
-30
-9.30
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
0.5
1.1
0.2
0.12
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
5.1
4.6
4.5
4.23
Low
Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.6
4.9
4.9
4.83
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.8
1
1.00
Medium
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.22
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.7
0.5
0.48
Low
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-1.9
1.3
1.3
0.83
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-7.8
-8.1
-12
-17.15
Low
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
2.3
-0.7
2.5
3.23
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
1.4
1
1
1.17
Low
Tuesday, May 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Unemployment Rate
32.9
32.1
32.3
32.68
Medium
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
-5.8
10.3
-3
-4.12
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-4.5
-5
-8
-7.50
Low
09:30
ZA
Unemployed Persons
8.226
7.895
7.9
7.95
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-5
5.3
-1.8
-1.38
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
-6.4
4
0.4
-0.57
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-2.2
-1
0.7
1.10
Low
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
50.3
48.4
51
50.98
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:45
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
38.172
44.235
43
43.15
Low
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
7.27
13.34
10
9.66
Medium
09:30
ZA
Budget Balance
2.07
20.78
-30
-9.30
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
5.18
3.32
4.8
4.85
Low
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
6.85
5.71
5.5
5.57
Low
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
1.1
0.5
0.3
0.22
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.6
4.5
4.3
4.03
Low
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
1.7
-0.2
-0.3
-0.77
Low
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-17.6
-13.5
-18
-23.15
Low
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
-3.2
1.2
1.37
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
-0.8
-2
-1.8
-1.07
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.7
1.2
0.3
0.28
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.3
5.6
5.4
5.32
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.9
5
4.7
4.63
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.8
1
0.3
0.30
Medium
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
4.1
2.9
3.5
2.53
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.3
0.4
0.4
0.80
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-3.6
-12.7
-14
-13.50
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
114.7
114.7
111.8
111.60
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
5
-0.4
1.2
1.62
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
114.7
112.3
112
111.80
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
9.9
-2.8
3.5
2.38
Low
Monday, April 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.32
61.65
62
62.19
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
48.4
50.8
50.3
50.28
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:20
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
44.237
44.749
48
48.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
49.2
51.7
51
50.80
Low
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
14.04
-9.69
8.6
8.26
Medium
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.5
4.7
4.9
4.63
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
0.5
0.1
0.9
0.82
Low
09:00
ZA
Budget Balance
20.78
-54.66
-2.7
18.00
Low
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
5.71
6.61
5.9
5.97
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
3.32
3.16
3.12
3.17
Low
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
Low
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
Medium
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-0.5
-0.7
-0.5
-0.97
Low
Monday, March 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Consumer Confidence
-15
-17
-15
-13.17
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
-2.1
3.2
1.5
2.23
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
-3.2
1.3
0.8
0.97
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
5
4.6
4.8
4.73
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
1.2
0.3
1.1
1.08
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
1
0.1
0.9
0.90
Medium
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.6
5.3
5.5
5.42
Medium
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Inflation Expectations
5.3
5.7
5.8
5.63
Low
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-14.7
-16.1
-10
-15.15
Low
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
2.6
1.3
0.7
-0.27
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.8
-1.3
0.5
0.90
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
-3.3
0.2
0.2
-0.92
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-0.8
-4.6
-1.3
-0.88
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-12.7
-3.6
2.5
3.00
Low
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ZA
Current Account
-165.5
-34.4
-92
-92.45
Low
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
61.653
61.188
61
61.19
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ZA
Business Confidence
30
31
30
31.50
Medium
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.2
-0.7
0.9
0.72
Medium
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
-0.2
0.3
0.23
Medium
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
50.8
49.2
48.8
48.78
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:15
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
44.749
41.636
42.5
42.65
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
51.7
43.6
43.2
43.00
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
-9.44
15.62
-5.2
-5.54
Medium
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.7
4
4.8
4.53
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
0.1
-0.6
0.1
0.02
Low
08:30
ZA
Budget Balance
-54.66
19.47
-69.75
-49.05
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
3.16
4.94
4.34
4.39
Low
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
6.58
7.65
7.05
7.12
Low
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
0.1
0.10
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.18
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.43
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.3
5.1
5.4
5.32
Medium
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Unemployment Rate
32.1
31.9
31.6
31.98
Medium
09:30
ZA
Unemployed Persons
7.895
7.849
8
8.05
Low
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-0.8
-0.4
-0.2
-0.67
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-16.1
-26
8.5
3.35
Low
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
1.4
1.1
-0.8
-0.63
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
2.7
-1
-0.7
0.03
Low
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-3.4
-2.9
2
2.50
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-4.2
2.7
-1.4
-0.98
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
0.6
6.9
4.9
3.78
Low
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-1.7
1.2
0.5
0.90
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
0.7
2.5
2.5
1.53
Low
11:00
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
112.1
108.6
112
111.80
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
61.188
62.518
63
63.19
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
49.2
49
50
49.98
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:15
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
40.329
45.075
43
43.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
43.6
50.9
51.3
51.10
Low
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
14.1
20.6
15
14.66
Medium
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:40
ZA
Budget Balance
19.47
-17.81
46
66.70
Low
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
7.63
5.46
5.5
5.57
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.94
3.84
4.1
4.15
Low
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
Medium
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4
4.6
4.3
4.03
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
-0.6
-0.6
-0.3
-0.38
Low
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.1
5.5
5.2
5.12
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.53
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.28
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0
-0.1
0.1
0.10
Medium
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-0.4
0.5
-0.4
-0.87
Low
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-26.6
-22.6
-25
-30.15
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
6.8
3.6
3
1.88
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-3
2.2
1.8
2.30
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
2.1
2
1.4
1.82
Low
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
-0.9
-2.3
-0.9
-0.17
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
-1.4
-0.7
-0.53
Low
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.9
2.3
1.9
0.93
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.8
-0.1
1
1.40
Low
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:10
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
40.33
45.45
39
39.15
Low
Monday, January 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
50.9
48.2
47
46.80
Low
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.518
61.721
62
62.19
Low
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
49
50
49.7
49.68
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Gross Domestic Product QoQ Shows Slower Growth in South Africa South Africa’s GDP QoQ Expands 0.50 Percent in Q4 2025 Gross Domestic Product QoQ measures the change in the value of all goods and services produced within South Africa from one quarter to the next, reflecting short-term economic momentum. Fast facts: Q4 2025 GDP growth was 0.50%, down from 0.90% in Q3; the annual average growth rate remains near 0.50%; data released on December 2, 2025. This latest Gross Domestic Product QoQ figure for South Africa indicates a moderation in economic expansion amid ongoing domestic challenges and softer global demand. According to Morgan Stanley, “The 0.50% growth signals resilience but highlights the need for structural reforms to sustain momentum.” Mining and services sectors contributed positively, while manufacturing slowed and electricity constraints persisted. Monetary policy remains steady, with the South African Reserve Bank maintaining rates to balance inflation and growth. Investors reacted cautiously, reflecting uncertainty about near-term prospects as external risks and fiscal pressures continue to weigh on the economy.
The Q4 2025 GDP growth of 0.50% QoQ marks a slowdown from Q3’s 0.90% but aligns with the 12-month average of 0.50%. This moderation reflects softer manufacturing output and ongoing electricity supply issues, partially offset by steady mining and services growth.
Compared to the same quarter last year (Q4 2024), when growth was 0.60%, the current print indicates a slight deceleration but remains within a stable range. The quarterly volatility underscores structural challenges and external shocks impacting the economy.