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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Gross Domestic Product QoQ climbed to 0.8% in Q2 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2025
South Africa Gross Domestic Product QoQ climbed to 0.8% in Q2 2025, released September 2025, up 0.7% from March's 0.1% reading. The print exceeded the 0.5% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.35%. Gross Domestic Product QoQ is now the highest in 6 months.
Latest Release
0.8
Actual
0.5
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.3 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Sep 2025
Predicted: 0.5
Actual: 0.8
Error: -0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/ZAR | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/ZAR | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (South Africa) was reported at 0.4% in March 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/ZAR (Bullish ZAR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Watch).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - ZA
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — South Africa
DEFINITION
South Africa’s Gross Domestic Product QoQ grew 0.400000% in February 2026, slowing from January’s 0.500000%. This marks a deceleration below the 12-month average of 0.5%, driven by mining and manufacturing sectors amid ongoing structural challenges. Market reaction was muted with the ZAR stable, while risks remain tilted to the downside as external demand softens. Updated 3/10/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2025): actual 0.4 %. Prior reading (Jul 2025): 0.5 %. Before that (Apr 2025): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/ZAR (Bullish ZAR, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30 | ZA | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 09:30 | ZA | Producer Price Index YoY | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 7.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | ZA | Budget Balance | 80.13 | -14.62 | 57 | 68.56 | Low |