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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Interest Rate Decision climbed to 7.25% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
South Africa Interest Rate Decision climbed to 7.25% in September 2026, up 0.25% from August's 7.0% reading. The reading matched the 7.25% consensus. Interest Rate Decision has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Interest Rate Decision is now the highest in 16 months.
Latest Release
7.25
Actual
7.25
Consensus
7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 7.13
Actual: 7.25
Error: -0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.75 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Decision (South Africa) was reported at 7.25% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 7.25% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.92%, ranging from 6.75% to 7.25% across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 7.08%, up from the prior three at 6.75%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.19%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.28%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Interest Rate Decision has averaged 7.42%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Nov 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Interest Rate Decision - ZA
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About Interest Rate Decision — South Africa
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the decision made by a central bank or monetary authority to either increase, decrease, or maintain the current interest rates. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects the cost of borrowing money, inflation rates, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor interest rate decisions as they can have a significant impact on financial markets and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 7.25 %, consensus 7.25 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 7 %. Before that (May 2026): 7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.75) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | ZA | Private Sector Credit YoY | 6.23 | 7.47 | 7.5 | 6.87 | Low |
| 09:30 | ZA | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.2 | 5 | 5.7 | 5.95 | Low |
| 09:30 | ZA | Producer Price Index MoM | 1 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Low |