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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Interest Rate Decision climbed to 7.0% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
South Africa Interest Rate Decision climbed to 7.0% in May 2026, up 0.25% from April's 6.75% reading. The reading matched the 7.0% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 7.4%. Interest Rate Decision is now the highest in 10 months.
Latest Release
7
Actual
7
Consensus
6.75
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 7.25
Actual: 7
Error: +0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/ZAR | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Decision (South Africa) was reported at 7% in May 2026. This matched the market consensus of 7% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 6.75%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.88%, ranging from 6.75% to 7% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.92%, up from the prior three at 6.83%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.13%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.32%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Interest Rate Decision has averaged 7.42%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Sep 23) and Inflation Rate YoY (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Interest Rate Decision - ZA
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About Interest Rate Decision — South Africa
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the decision made by a central bank or monetary authority to either increase, decrease, or maintain the current interest rates. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects the cost of borrowing money, inflation rates, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor interest rate decisions as they can have a significant impact on financial markets and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 7 %, consensus 7.25 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 7 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 6.75 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.67) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | ZA | Inflation Expectations | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.40 | Low | |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.7 | 1.65 | Low | |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales YoY | 1.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low | |