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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Manufacturing Production MoM fell to -3.1% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
South Africa Manufacturing Production MoM fell to -3.1% in August 2026, released October 2026, down 5.3% from July's 2.2% reading. The reading missed the 1.7% consensus by 4.8%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.02%. Over the past 3 months, Manufacturing Production MoM averaged 1.55%, vs -0.27% in the prior 3-month window. Manufacturing Production MoM is now the lowest in 26 months.
Latest Release
-3.1
Actual
1.7
Consensus
2.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.89 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 3.05
Actual: -3.1
Error: +6.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/ZAR | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing Production MoM (South Africa) was reported at -3.1% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.7% by 4.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.1%, ranging from -3.1% to 2.2% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0%, up from the prior three at -0.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.66%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.29%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Manufacturing Production MoM has averaged -1.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/ZAR (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.89%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 10, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Nov 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Manufacturing Production MoM - ZA
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About Manufacturing Production MoM — South Africa
DEFINITION
Manufacturing Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of goods produced by the manufacturing sector in a given month. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and performance of the manufacturing industry, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic growth. A positive change in Manufacturing Production MoM indicates an increase in production and can be seen as a sign of economic expansion, while a negative change may signal a decline in manufacturing activity. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts to make informed decisions and forecasts about the state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -3.1 %, consensus 1.7 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 2.2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/ZAR (Bullish USD, r=0.41) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | ZA | Private Sector Credit YoY | 6.23 | 7.47 | 7.5 | 6.87 | Low |
| 09:30 | ZA | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.2 | 5 | 5.7 | 5.95 | Low |
| 09:30 | ZA | Producer Price Index MoM | 1 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Low |