Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Manufacturing Production YoY fell to -2.9% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
South Africa Manufacturing Production YoY fell to -2.9% in April 2026, released June 2026, down 4.4% from March's 1.5% reading. The reading missed the 1.2% consensus by 4.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.88%. Over the past 3 months, Manufacturing Production YoY averaged -0.95%, vs -1.03% in the prior 3-month window. Manufacturing Production YoY is now the lowest in 11 months.
Latest Release
-2.9
Actual
1.2
Consensus
1.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.37 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 2.15
Actual: -2.9
Error: +5.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing Production YoY (South Africa) was reported at -2.9% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.2% by 4.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.4%, ranging from -2.9% to 1.9% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.9%, down from the prior three at -0.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.27%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.23%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Manufacturing Production YoY has averaged -1.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.37%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
SHARE
Manufacturing Production YoY - ZA
Loading chart data...
About Manufacturing Production YoY — South Africa
DEFINITION
Manufacturing Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total output of goods produced by the manufacturing sector over a 12-month period. This indicator is used to assess the health and growth of the manufacturing industry, which is a key driver of economic activity. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in production, while a negative YoY growth suggests a decline. This information is valuable for investors, policymakers, and businesses in making informed decisions about the state of the economy and potential investment opportunities.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -2.9 %, consensus 1.2 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.9 %. Before that (Feb 2026): -2.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.