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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Manufacturing Production YoY fell to -4.3% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
South Africa Manufacturing Production YoY fell to -4.3% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 1.4% from April's -2.9% reading. The reading missed the -3.2% consensus by 1.1%. Manufacturing Production YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Manufacturing Production YoY averaged -1.0%, vs -1.63% in the prior 3-month window. Manufacturing Production YoY is now the lowest in 12 months.
Latest Release
-4.3
Actual
-3.2
Consensus
-2.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.17 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -3.75
Actual: -4.3
Error: +0.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/ZAR | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing Production YoY (South Africa) was reported at -4.3% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -3.2% by 1.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of -2.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.84%, ranging from -4.3% to 1.9% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -2.1%, down from the prior three at -1.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.65%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.3%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Manufacturing Production YoY has averaged -1.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.18%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Manufacturing Production YoY - ZA
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About Manufacturing Production YoY — South Africa
DEFINITION
Manufacturing Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total output of goods produced by the manufacturing sector over a 12-month period. This indicator is used to assess the health and growth of the manufacturing industry, which is a key driver of economic activity. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in production, while a negative YoY growth suggests a decline. This information is valuable for investors, policymakers, and businesses in making informed decisions about the state of the economy and potential investment opportunities.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -4.3 %, consensus -3.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -2.9 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | ZA | Balance of Trade | 17.75 | 4.44 | 32 | 24.88 | Medium |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | ZA | ABSA Manufacturing PMI | 47.3 | 49 | 51.95 | Low | |