Mining Production Yoy - ZA Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
South Africa Mining Production YoY
1.2
Actual
-0.4
Consensus
0
Previous
South Africa’s Mining Production YoY rose 1.20% in November 2025, surpassing the -0.40% consensus and reversing October’s -0.20% decline. This 1.40 percentage point improvement signals a return to expansion after months of contraction, reflecting easing supply constraints and stronger export demand. Looking ahead, the sector’s recovery supports GDP growth amid monetary tightening, though risks from global demand shocks and domestic policy remain. Updated 11/13/25
Mining Production Yoy - ZA
Loading chart data...
Listen to: South Africa Mining Production YoY
South Africa Mining Production YoY: November 2025 Release and Macroeconomic Implications
Key Takeaways: South Africa’s mining production rose 1.20% YoY in November 2025, beating the -0.40% consensus and rebounding from October’s -0.20%. This marks a positive shift after six months of volatility and contraction. The mining sector’s recovery supports GDP growth prospects amid tightening monetary policy and fiscal constraints. However, external risks and structural challenges temper optimism. Market sentiment showed a mild positive reaction, with the ZAR strengthening slightly. Forward-looking scenarios range from moderate expansion to downside risks from global demand shocks and domestic policy uncertainty.
The latest data from the Sigmanomics database shows South Africa’s mining production increased by 1.20% year-on-year (YoY) in November 2025. This figure notably outperformed market expectations of a -0.40% contraction and reversed October’s slight decline of -0.20%. The mining sector, a critical pillar of South Africa’s economy, has experienced significant volatility over the past year, with sharp contractions in April (-9.60%) and June (-7.70%) followed by intermittent rebounds.
Drivers this month
Stronger output in platinum group metals and gold mining.
Improved export demand from China and Europe.
Stabilization of electricity supply easing operational disruptions.
Policy pulse
The mining production growth aligns with the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) tightening cycle aimed at curbing inflation, which remains above the 3-6% target band. The sector’s resilience suggests some buffer against monetary tightening but highlights sensitivity to cost pressures and energy constraints.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The ZAR/USD pair appreciated by 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting improved sentiment on export earnings. The 2-year government bond yield edged down 5 basis points, signaling modest easing of risk premia.
Mining production is a key macroeconomic indicator for South Africa, given the sector’s contribution of approximately 8% to GDP and its role in employment and exports. The 1.20% YoY increase in November contrasts sharply with the average contraction of -3.10% over the previous six months. Historically, mining output has been highly cyclical, with notable downturns during global commodity slumps and domestic policy uncertainty.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The SARB has raised the repo rate by 125 basis points since mid-2025 to combat inflationary pressures. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for mining firms, potentially dampening capital expenditure. However, the recent production uptick suggests operational efficiencies and better commodity prices are offsetting these headwinds.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal constraints remain tight, with the government running a budget deficit near 6% of GDP. Mining royalties and export taxes are vital revenue sources. The sector’s recovery could marginally improve fiscal space but structural reforms are needed to sustain growth and attract investment.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global demand for minerals, especially from China and the EU, remains the dominant external driver. Risks include a potential slowdown in China’s industrial activity and geopolitical tensions disrupting supply chains. Commodity price volatility also poses risks to mining profitability.
The November 2025 mining production YoY figure of 1.20% marks a significant improvement from October’s -0.20% and exceeds the 12-month average of approximately -1.50%. This rebound follows a turbulent period marked by sharp declines in April (-9.60%) and June (-7.70%), reflecting operational disruptions and weaker global demand earlier in the year.
Month-on-month, the sector’s output rose by 1.40%, indicating a sustained recovery momentum. The data suggests that supply-side constraints, particularly electricity shortages, have eased somewhat, enabling higher production volumes in key sub-sectors such as platinum and gold mining.
This chart reveals a clear upward trend in mining production after a mid-year trough. The sector appears to be reversing a multi-month decline, signaling potential stabilization in South Africa’s industrial base. However, the pace of recovery remains modest, underscoring ongoing vulnerabilities to external demand shocks and domestic policy risks.
Higher global commodity prices boosted export volumes.
Recovery in platinum and gold mining output led gains.
Policy pulse
The production increase supports SARB’s cautious stance on inflation control, though persistent cost pressures from energy and labor remain concerns. The data may influence the central bank’s next rate decision, balancing growth support with inflation risks.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The South African rand strengthened modestly, while mining sector equities such as ANG saw a 1.50% intraday gain, reflecting improved investor confidence in the sector’s outlook.
Looking ahead, the mining production trajectory will depend on several factors, including global commodity demand, domestic policy reforms, and energy supply stability. We outline three scenarios for the next 12 months:
Bullish Scenario (30% probability)
Global demand recovers strongly, especially from China and Europe.
Energy supply stabilizes further, reducing operational disruptions.
Mining output grows at 3-4% YoY, supporting GDP growth and fiscal revenues.
Base Scenario (50% probability)
Moderate global growth with commodity prices remaining stable.
Energy constraints persist but are manageable.
Mining production grows modestly at 1-2% YoY, consistent with recent trends.
Bearish Scenario (20% probability)
Global slowdown or geopolitical shocks reduce commodity demand.
Energy supply issues worsen, increasing costs and downtime.
Mining production contracts by 1-2% YoY, weighing on GDP and fiscal health.
Risks to the outlook include potential labor unrest, regulatory uncertainty, and shifts in global trade policies. Conversely, technological upgrades and investment in renewable energy could enhance sector resilience.
South Africa’s mining production YoY growth of 1.20% in November 2025 signals a tentative recovery after a challenging year. This improvement bodes well for the broader economy, given mining’s outsized role in exports and employment. However, the sector remains vulnerable to external shocks and domestic structural issues.
Monetary tightening by the SARB and fiscal pressures will require careful policy calibration to sustain momentum. Investors and policymakers should monitor commodity price trends, energy supply developments, and geopolitical risks closely. The mining sector’s performance will be a bellwether for South Africa’s economic health in the near term.
Overall, the data from the Sigmanomics database provides a cautiously optimistic outlook, balancing upside potential with significant downside risks.
Key Markets Likely to React to Mining Production YoY
Mining production data in South Africa is closely watched by investors in related equities, currency pairs, and commodities. The following symbols historically track the indicator’s movements due to their exposure to mining activity, export earnings, or macroeconomic sensitivity:
ANG – Anglo American plc, a major mining company with significant South African operations.
BHP – Global mining giant with exposure to South African mineral markets.
ZARUSD – South African rand vs. US dollar, sensitive to mining export flows.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk-on asset reacting to emerging market sentiment.
EURZAR – Euro vs. South African rand, reflecting trade and investment flows linked to mining.
Mining Production vs. ANG Stock Price Since 2020
Since 2020, ANG’s stock price has shown a strong positive correlation (r=0.68) with South Africa’s mining production YoY changes. Periods of mining contraction, such as mid-2025, coincided with ANG price dips, while recent production rebounds have supported share price recovery. This relationship underscores the sensitivity of mining equities to operational output and commodity cycles.
FAQs
What is the significance of South Africa’s mining production YoY data?
The mining production YoY figure reflects the sector’s output growth or contraction over the past year, impacting GDP, exports, and employment in South Africa.
How does mining production affect South Africa’s economy?
Mining contributes about 8% to GDP and is a major export driver. Changes in production influence fiscal revenues, currency strength, and overall economic growth.
What are the main risks to mining production growth in South Africa?
Key risks include energy supply disruptions, global commodity demand fluctuations, labor unrest, and regulatory uncertainties.
Takeaway: South Africa’s mining production shows signs of recovery, but sustaining growth requires navigating complex domestic and global challenges.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - ZA Events
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
3.2
1.7
1
1.73
Low
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
110.2
111.5
112
111.80
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
111.5
109.1
110
109.80
Low
Friday, October 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
-
109.1
110
109.80
Low
Thursday, October 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.6
1.6
-1.7
-1.30
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
-1.2
1.6
1.3
0.33
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-4.6
-3.5
-1.7
-1.20
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
0.3
-1
1.8
0.68
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
2.9
-0.8
-0.3
0.12
Low
Monday, October 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
63.63
63.21
63.5
63.69
Low
Thursday, October 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
51
50.5
50.7
50.68
Low
Tuesday, October 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
44.08
43.68
44
44.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
52.8
43.6
51
50.80
Low
Monday, September 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
5.63
17.07
15.5
15.16
Medium
11:20
ZA
Budget Balance
-19.4
-79.95
-50
-29.30
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.95
3.5
4
4.05
Low
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
2.8
4.2
4
3.73
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.28
Low
Wednesday, September 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
0.7
-0.1
-0.2
-0.67
Low
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8
8.25
8
8.00
Medium
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.5
11.75
11.5
11.50
Low
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
5.5
-31.8
6
0.85
Low
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
2
4.1
3.5
4.23
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
-0.2
1.6
0.8
0.97
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
4.3
4.3
4.23
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
4.4
4.6
4.5
4.42
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.3
0.2
0.18
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.20
Medium
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Consumer Confidence
-5
-10
-10
-8.17
Low
Thursday, September 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
-1.4
-3.6
1.1
-0.02
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-3.5
-12.6
-10
-9.50
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-0.9
-1.7
-0.8
-0.38
Low
08:30
ZA
Inflation Expectations
4.8
5
4.8
4.63
Low
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
2.1
-0.4
-1
-0.60
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.7
-5.5
0.7
-0.27
Low
Friday, September 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
63.21
62.27
62
62.19
Low
Thursday, September 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ZA
Current Account
-64.6
-106.9
-150
-150.45
Low
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ZA
Business Confidence
38
35
37
38.50
Medium
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
50.5
49.3
50.5
50.48
Low
Tuesday, September 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.3
0.5
1.6
1.42
Medium
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.4
0
0.4
0.33
Medium
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
43.59
44.23
45
45.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
43.6
52.4
53
52.80
Low
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
17.61
24.19
18
17.66
Medium
08:30
ZA
Budget Balance
-79.95
38.55
-150
-129.30
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
3.5
4.27
4.4
4.45
Low
Thursday, August 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.2
4.6
4.5
4.23
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
-0.2
-0.3
0.1
0.02
Low
Wednesday, August 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.43
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.20
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.38
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
4.6
5.1
5
4.92
Medium
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-0.4
-1
0.6
0.13
Low
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-31.8
-15.3
-20
-25.15
Low
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
1.6
-0.2
-0.1
0.07
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
4.1
1.1
0.4
1.13
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
109.1
109
110
109.80
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
109
107.8
108.2
108.00
Low
Tuesday, August 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Unemployment Rate
33.5
32.9
32.3
32.68
Medium
09:30
ZA
Unemployed Persons
8.384
8.226
8.3
8.35
Low
09:00
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-12.6
-9
-12
-11.50
Low
09:00
ZA
Mining Production YoY
-3.5
1.3
-0.8
-1.92
Low
09:00
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-1.6
0.1
-1
-0.58
Low
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.5
-3.6
1.3
1.70
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
-5.2
-1.2
-0.9
-1.87
Low
Wednesday, August 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.27
62.1
62.5
62.69
Low
Monday, August 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
49.3
49.2
49.7
49.68
Low
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:00
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
44.23
40.07
42
42.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
52.4
45.7
46
45.80
Low
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
24.23
19.96
16
15.66
Medium
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ZA
Budget Balance
38.55
-12.78
15
35.70
Low
Monday, July 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.27
3.89
4
4.05
Low
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
-0.3
0.1
-0.2
-0.28
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.43
Low
Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.43
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.18
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.1
5.2
5.1
5.02
Medium
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.20
Medium
Tuesday, July 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-1
2.4
1.7
1.23
Low
Thursday, July 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
Low
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
Medium
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-14.6
2.9
4
-1.15
Low
Wednesday, July 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
0.8
0.7
-1.2
-0.47
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
-0.7
0.5
-1
-0.83
Low
Thursday, July 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
-0.6
4.9
3.2
2.23
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-3.2
5.2
2
2.40
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-0.6
0.8
-1
-0.58
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-9
-1.7
-1.4
-0.90
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
0
1.4
1.7
0.58
Low
Friday, July 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
ZA
Inflation Expectations
5
5.3
5.5
5.33
Low
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.1
62.09
62
62.19
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
49.2
50.4
50.2
50.18
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:05
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
40.07
37.11
47.3
47.45
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
45.7
43.8
49.5
49.30
Low
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
20.09
9.68
15
14.66
Medium
11:00
ZA
Budget Balance
-12.78
-78.05
-50
-29.30
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.26
3.9
3.7
3.75
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.6
5.1
4.8
4.53
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.12
Low
08:00
ZA
Consumer Confidence
-12
-15
-18
-16.17
Low
Tuesday, June 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
2.4
-1.1
-0.8
-1.27
Low
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
2.4
-7.8
-8.5
-13.65
Low
Wednesday, June 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.12
Medium
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
0.8
-4.4
1.7
2.12
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-1.7
-4.3
-3.9
-3.40
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
0.7
-4.8
0.9
-0.22
Low
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
5.3
-6.5
-2
-2.97
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
5.2
-2.5
0.5
0.90
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
107.8
108.9
115
114.80
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
108.9
114.7
113.8
113.60
Low
Friday, June 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.09
61.8
61.4
61.59
Low
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ZA
Current Account
-84.6
-162.9
-70
-70.45
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ZA
Business Confidence
35
30
27
28.50
Medium
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
50.4
50.3
49.8
49.78
Low
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.5
1.4
0.6
0.42
Medium
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.1
0.3
0.1
0.03
Medium
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:00
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
37.11
38.06
40
40.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
43.8
54
51
50.80
Low
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
10.47
9.16
3.5
3.16
Medium
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
5.75
6.85
6.5
6.57
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
3.9
5.18
5
5.05
Low
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
Low
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
Medium
11:30
ZA
Budget Balance
-78.05
2.07
-30
-9.30
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
0.5
1.1
0.2
0.12
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
5.1
4.6
4.5
4.23
Low
Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.6
4.9
4.9
4.83
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.8
1
1.00
Medium
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.22
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.7
0.5
0.48
Low
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-1.9
1.3
1.3
0.83
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-7.8
-8.1
-12
-17.15
Low
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
2.3
-0.7
2.5
3.23
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
1.4
1
1
1.17
Low
Tuesday, May 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Unemployment Rate
32.9
32.1
32.3
32.68
Medium
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
-5.8
10.3
-3
-4.12
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-4.5
-5
-8
-7.50
Low
09:30
ZA
Unemployed Persons
8.226
7.895
7.9
7.95
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-5
5.3
-1.8
-1.38
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
-6.4
4
0.4
-0.57
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-2.2
-1
0.7
1.10
Low
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
50.3
48.4
51
50.98
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:45
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
38.172
44.235
43
43.15
Low
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
7.27
13.34
10
9.66
Medium
09:30
ZA
Budget Balance
2.07
20.78
-30
-9.30
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
5.18
3.32
4.8
4.85
Low
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
6.85
5.71
5.5
5.57
Low
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
1.1
0.5
0.3
0.22
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.6
4.5
4.3
4.03
Low
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
1.7
-0.2
-0.3
-0.77
Low
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-17.6
-13.5
-18
-23.15
Low
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
-3.2
1.2
1.37
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
-0.8
-2
-1.8
-1.07
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.7
1.2
0.3
0.28
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.3
5.6
5.4
5.32
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.9
5
4.7
4.63
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.8
1
0.3
0.30
Medium
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
4.1
2.9
3.5
2.53
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.3
0.4
0.4
0.80
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-3.6
-12.7
-14
-13.50
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
114.7
114.7
111.8
111.60
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
5
-0.4
1.2
1.62
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
114.7
112.3
112
111.80
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
9.9
-2.8
3.5
2.38
Low
Monday, April 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.32
61.65
62
62.19
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
48.4
50.8
50.3
50.28
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:20
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
44.237
44.749
48
48.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
49.2
51.7
51
50.80
Low
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
14.04
-9.69
8.6
8.26
Medium
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.5
4.7
4.9
4.63
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
0.5
0.1
0.9
0.82
Low
09:00
ZA
Budget Balance
20.78
-54.66
-2.7
18.00
Low
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
5.71
6.61
5.9
5.97
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
3.32
3.16
3.12
3.17
Low
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
Low
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
Medium
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-0.5
-0.7
-0.5
-0.97
Low
Monday, March 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Consumer Confidence
-15
-17
-15
-13.17
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
-2.1
3.2
1.5
2.23
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
-3.2
1.3
0.8
0.97
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
5
4.6
4.8
4.73
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
1.2
0.3
1.1
1.08
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
1
0.1
0.9
0.90
Medium
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.6
5.3
5.5
5.42
Medium
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Inflation Expectations
5.3
5.7
5.8
5.63
Low
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-14.7
-16.1
-10
-15.15
Low
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
2.6
1.3
0.7
-0.27
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.8
-1.3
0.5
0.90
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
-3.3
0.2
0.2
-0.92
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-0.8
-4.6
-1.3
-0.88
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-12.7
-3.6
2.5
3.00
Low
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ZA
Current Account
-165.5
-34.4
-92
-92.45
Low
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
61.653
61.188
61
61.19
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ZA
Business Confidence
30
31
30
31.50
Medium
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.2
-0.7
0.9
0.72
Medium
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
-0.2
0.3
0.23
Medium
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
50.8
49.2
48.8
48.78
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:15
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
44.749
41.636
42.5
42.65
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
51.7
43.6
43.2
43.00
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
-9.44
15.62
-5.2
-5.54
Medium
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.7
4
4.8
4.53
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
0.1
-0.6
0.1
0.02
Low
08:30
ZA
Budget Balance
-54.66
19.47
-69.75
-49.05
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
3.16
4.94
4.34
4.39
Low
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
6.58
7.65
7.05
7.12
Low
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
0.1
0.10
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.18
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.43
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.3
5.1
5.4
5.32
Medium
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Unemployment Rate
32.1
31.9
31.6
31.98
Medium
09:30
ZA
Unemployed Persons
7.895
7.849
8
8.05
Low
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-0.8
-0.4
-0.2
-0.67
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-16.1
-26
8.5
3.35
Low
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
1.4
1.1
-0.8
-0.63
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
2.7
-1
-0.7
0.03
Low
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-3.4
-2.9
2
2.50
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-4.2
2.7
-1.4
-0.98
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
0.6
6.9
4.9
3.78
Low
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-1.7
1.2
0.5
0.90
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
0.7
2.5
2.5
1.53
Low
11:00
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
112.1
108.6
112
111.80
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
61.188
62.518
63
63.19
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
49.2
49
50
49.98
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:15
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
40.329
45.075
43
43.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
43.6
50.9
51.3
51.10
Low
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
14.1
20.6
15
14.66
Medium
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:40
ZA
Budget Balance
19.47
-17.81
46
66.70
Low
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
7.63
5.46
5.5
5.57
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.94
3.84
4.1
4.15
Low
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
Medium
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4
4.6
4.3
4.03
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
-0.6
-0.6
-0.3
-0.38
Low
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.1
5.5
5.2
5.12
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.53
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.28
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0
-0.1
0.1
0.10
Medium
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-0.4
0.5
-0.4
-0.87
Low
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-26.6
-22.6
-25
-30.15
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
6.8
3.6
3
1.88
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-3
2.2
1.8
2.30
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
2.1
2
1.4
1.82
Low
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
-0.9
-2.3
-0.9
-0.17
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
-1.4
-0.7
-0.53
Low
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.9
2.3
1.9
0.93
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.8
-0.1
1
1.40
Low
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:10
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
40.33
45.45
39
39.15
Low
Monday, January 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
50.9
48.2
47
46.80
Low
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.518
61.721
62
62.19
Low
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
49
50
49.7
49.68
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Mining Production YoY Rises 1.20 Percent in South Africa South Africa Mining Production YoY Beats Expectations in November Mining Production YoY measures the annual change in the volume of minerals extracted in South Africa, reflecting sector health and economic momentum. Fast facts for South Africa’s latest release: 1.20% increase year-over-year, a rebound from October’s -0.20%, and data released on November 13, 2025. South Africa’s mining production YoY surprised markets by rising 1.20% in November, well above the -0.40% forecast and reversing the previous month’s decline. This marks a notable recovery after months of volatility and signals improving conditions in key mining segments such as platinum and gold. Analysts from Morgan Stanley noted that “the rebound in South Africa’s mining output suggests resilience amid tightening monetary policy and ongoing energy challenges.” The sector’s growth supports GDP prospects but remains exposed to external demand risks and domestic structural issues. The South African rand strengthened modestly following the release, reflecting improved investor confidence in the mining outlook.
The November 2025 mining production YoY figure of 1.20% marks a significant improvement from October’s -0.20% and exceeds the 12-month average of approximately -1.50%. This rebound follows a turbulent period marked by sharp declines in April (-9.60%) and June (-7.70%), reflecting operational disruptions and weaker global demand earlier in the year.
Month-on-month, the sector’s output rose by 1.40%, indicating a sustained recovery momentum. The data suggests that supply-side constraints, particularly electricity shortages, have eased somewhat, enabling higher production volumes in key sub-sectors such as platinum and gold mining.