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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Mining Production YoY fell to -5.4% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
South Africa Mining Production YoY fell to -5.4% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 13.4% from April's 8.0% reading. The reading missed the 1.5% consensus by 6.9%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.68%. Over the past 3 months, Mining Production YoY averaged 5.35%, vs 3.52% in the prior 3-month window. Mining Production YoY is now the lowest in 12 months.
Latest Release
-5.4
Actual
1.5
Consensus
8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.71 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2.4
Actual: -5.4
Error: +7.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/ZAR | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Mining Production YoY (South Africa) was reported at -5.4% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.5% by 6.9%. The reading fell from the previous value of 8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.12%, ranging from -5.4% to 8.2% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.77%, up from the prior three at 1.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.67%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 3.67%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Mining Production YoY has averaged -1.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/ZAR, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.71%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Mining Production YoY - ZA
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About Mining Production YoY — South Africa
DEFINITION
Mining Production YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the output of the mining industry. It provides valuable insights into the overall performance and growth of the mining sector, which is a key component of many economies. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can indicate the health of the industry and its impact on the broader economy. A positive YoY change in mining production suggests an increase in economic activity and potential for growth, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -5.4 %, consensus 1.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 8.2 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 2.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.48) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30 | ZA | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 09:30 | ZA | Producer Price Index YoY | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 7.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | ZA | Budget Balance | 80.13 | -14.62 | 57 | 68.56 | Low |