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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Prime Overdraft Rate climbed to 10.5% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
South Africa Prime Overdraft Rate climbed to 10.5% in May 2026, up 0.25% from April's 10.25% reading. The reading matched the 10.5% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.25%. Prime Overdraft Rate is now the highest in 10 months.
Latest Release
10.5
Actual
10.5
Consensus
10.25
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 10.5
Actual: 10.5
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| USD/ZAR | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Prime Overdraft Rate (South Africa) was reported at 10.5% in May 2026. This matched the market consensus of 10.5% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 10.25%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10.38%, ranging from 10.25% to 10.5% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 10.33%, down from the prior three at 10.42%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.13%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.34%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Prime Overdraft Rate has averaged 11%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with USD/ZAR, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Prime Overdraft Rate - ZA
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About Prime Overdraft Rate — South Africa
DEFINITION
The Prime Overdraft Rate is a financial indicator that measures the interest rate charged by banks for overdrafts on their customers' accounts. This rate is typically tied to the prime rate, which is the benchmark interest rate used by banks for their most creditworthy customers. The Prime Overdraft Rate is an important tool for banks to manage their liquidity and profitability, and it can also impact consumers' borrowing costs and overall financial health. This indicator is closely monitored by financial institutions, economists, and policymakers as it reflects the current state of the economy and can influence lending and spending decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 10.5 %, consensus 10.5 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 10.25 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 10.25 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.65) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.