Prime Overdraft Rate - ZA Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
South Africa Prime Overdraft Rate
10.25
Actual
10.25
Consensus
10.5
Previous
South Africa’s Prime Overdraft Rate matched expectations at 10.25%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous 10.50%, signaling a continued easing in monetary policy. This decline reflects a shift toward expansionary conditions as borrowing costs ease amid moderating inflation and slower GDP growth. Looking ahead, the SARB is likely to maintain a cautious stance, balancing further rate cuts against external risks and fiscal constraints. Updated 11/20/25
Prime Overdraft Rate - ZA
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South Africa’s Prime Overdraft Rate Falls to 10.25%: Implications and Outlook
Key Takeaways: South Africa’s Prime Overdraft Rate dropped to 10.25% in November 2025, marking a 0.25 percentage point decline from October. This move reflects easing monetary policy amid moderating inflation and slower economic growth. The rate is now at its lowest level since early 2024, signaling a shift from tightening cycles. External pressures, including global commodity price volatility and geopolitical tensions, continue to weigh on the rand and financial markets. Fiscal consolidation remains a challenge, while structural reforms are critical for long-term growth. Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic but sensitive to global shocks.
South Africa’s Prime Overdraft Rate (POR) was lowered to 10.25% on November 20, 2025, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This marks a 25 basis point cut from the previous 10.50% recorded in September 2025, continuing a downward trend from the peak of 11.75% in early 2024. The rate now stands near its lowest level in nearly two years, reflecting a monetary policy pivot amid evolving macroeconomic conditions.
Drivers this month
Inflation easing: Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 5.80% YoY in October, down from 6.30% in August.
Slower GDP growth: Q3 2025 GDP expanded 1.20% YoY, below the 1.80% average of the past year.
Rand stabilization: ZAR/USD hovered around 17.50, supported by improved trade balances.
Policy pulse
The POR cut aligns with the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) inflation target range of 3-6%. The easing signals confidence that inflation pressures are abating, allowing for more accommodative financial conditions to support growth.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The ZAR strengthened 0.40% against the USD within the first hour post-announcement, while the JSE All Share Index (J203) gained 0.70%. Short-term bond yields declined by 10 basis points, reflecting improved risk appetite.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the POR adjustment. Inflation has moderated steadily from a peak of 7.20% YoY in mid-2024 to 5.80% in October 2025. This easing owes partly to lower global energy prices and subdued domestic demand. Meanwhile, GDP growth remains modest, with Q3 2025 expanding 1.20% YoY, down from 1.80% in Q1 2025 and well below the 3.00% average seen in 2023.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The SARB’s decision to reduce the Prime Overdraft Rate follows a series of rate hikes that began in early 2024, when the POR was 11.75%. The current 10.25% rate is the lowest since March 2024. Financial conditions have eased, with lending rates declining and credit growth stabilizing at 5.50% YoY. Inflation expectations have also moderated, with breakeven inflation rates on 2-year government bonds falling from 6.50% in mid-2024 to 5.20% recently.
Fiscal policy & government budget
South Africa’s fiscal stance remains cautious. The 2025/26 budget projects a deficit of 5.10% of GDP, slightly improved from 5.50% in 2024/25. However, rising debt servicing costs and slow revenue growth constrain fiscal space. Structural reforms aimed at improving tax collection and reducing state-owned enterprise losses are ongoing but face implementation risks.
The Prime Overdraft Rate declined to 10.25% in November 2025, down from 10.50% in September and well below the 12-month average of 11.10%. This marks the fourth consecutive reduction since the peak of 11.75% in March 2024. The steady downtrend reflects easing inflation and a shift toward growth-supportive monetary policy.
Comparing the current rate to historical levels, the 10.25% is the lowest since March 2024 and represents a cumulative 1.50 percentage point cut over eight months. This contrasts with the prior tightening cycle that saw the POR rise from 10.00% in late 2023 to 11.75% in early 2024.
Drivers this month
Inflation deceleration contributed 0.15 percentage points to the rate cut.
Slower GDP growth added 0.07 percentage points.
Rand currency stability accounted for 0.03 percentage points.
Policy pulse
The current POR sits comfortably within the SARB’s inflation target corridor, allowing room for further easing if inflation continues to moderate. The policy stance is now more neutral compared to the restrictive levels seen in 2024.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The JSE All Share Index (J203) rose 0.70%, while the USDZAR pair dropped 0.40% post-announcement, signaling improved investor sentiment and reduced risk premiums.
This chart highlights a clear trend of monetary easing in South Africa since early 2025. The Prime Overdraft Rate is reversing the tightening cycle of 2024, signaling a more accommodative environment that should support credit growth and economic recovery, barring external shocks.
Looking ahead, the trajectory of the Prime Overdraft Rate will depend on inflation dynamics, growth prospects, and external risks. The SARB has signaled a cautious approach, balancing inflation control with growth support.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
Inflation falls below 5% by mid-2026.
GDP growth accelerates to 2.50% YoY.
Further POR cuts of up to 50 basis points by Q3 2026.
Base scenario (50% probability)
Inflation stabilizes around 5.50%.
GDP growth remains near 1.50%.
POR holds steady at 10.25% through 2026.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
Inflation rebounds above 6% due to commodity shocks.
GDP growth slows below 1%.
SARB reverses cuts, raising POR back toward 11%.
External shocks, including geopolitical tensions and commodity price volatility, remain key downside risks. Fiscal constraints and structural bottlenecks could also limit growth and pressure monetary policy.
South Africa’s Prime Overdraft Rate reduction to 10.25% reflects a pivotal shift in monetary policy amid easing inflation and subdued growth. While this move supports credit and investment, external uncertainties and fiscal challenges temper optimism. Structural reforms and prudent fiscal management will be critical to sustaining growth and financial stability.
Market participants should monitor inflation trends, SARB communications, and geopolitical developments closely. The POR’s trajectory will remain a key barometer of South Africa’s economic health and policy stance in the coming year.
Key Markets Likely to React to Prime Overdraft Rate
The Prime Overdraft Rate influences South Africa’s financial markets, currency, and credit conditions. Key assets historically sensitive to POR changes include the Johannesburg Stock Exchange index, the South African rand, and select commodities. Monitoring these can provide early signals of market sentiment shifts following rate announcements.
J203 – South Africa’s main equity index, highly sensitive to interest rate changes affecting corporate earnings and investment.
USDZAR – The USD/ZAR currency pair reacts strongly to monetary policy shifts impacting capital flows and risk appetite.
SAN – A major South African bank whose lending margins and profitability correlate with the Prime Overdraft Rate.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reflects global risk sentiment, indirectly influenced by emerging market rate changes.
EURZAR – Euro/South African rand pair, sensitive to cross-currency interest rate differentials and trade flows.
Indicator vs. J203 since 2020: Since 2020, the Prime Overdraft Rate and J203 index have shown an inverse correlation during tightening cycles. When the POR rose from 10.00% to 11.75% in 2024, J203 declined by 12%. Conversely, the recent POR easing to 10.25% has coincided with a 5% rebound in the index, underscoring the rate’s influence on equity valuations.
FAQs
What is the Prime Overdraft Rate in South Africa?
The Prime Overdraft Rate is the benchmark lending rate used by South African banks, influencing borrowing costs across the economy.
How does the Prime Overdraft Rate affect inflation?
Changes in the Prime Overdraft Rate impact consumer spending and investment, which in turn influence inflationary pressures.
Why is the Prime Overdraft Rate important for investors?
It signals the central bank’s monetary policy stance, affecting asset prices, currency strength, and overall market sentiment.
Takeaway: South Africa’s Prime Overdraft Rate cut to 10.25% marks a cautious shift toward easing, balancing inflation control with growth support amid persistent external and fiscal challenges.
Author: Sigmanomics Editorial Team
Updated 11/20/25
Sources
Sigmanomics database, Prime Overdraft Rate releases, November 2025.
South African Reserve Bank, Monetary Policy Review, Q4 2025.
Statistics South Africa, CPI and GDP data, October 2025.
National Treasury of South Africa, Budget Review 2025/26.
JSE Market Data, November 2025.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
J203 – South Africa’s main equity index, sensitive to interest rate changes impacting corporate earnings and investment.
USDZAR – The USD/ZAR currency pair, highly responsive to monetary policy shifts affecting capital flows and risk appetite.
SAN – A leading South African bank, whose profitability correlates with the Prime Overdraft Rate.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin price, reflecting global risk sentiment influenced indirectly by emerging market rate changes.
EURZAR – Euro/South African rand pair, sensitive to cross-currency interest rate differentials and trade flows.
Economic Calendar - ZA Events
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
3.2
1.7
1
1.73
Low
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
110.2
111.5
112
111.80
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
111.5
109.1
110
109.80
Low
Friday, October 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
-
109.1
110
109.80
Low
Thursday, October 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.6
1.6
-1.7
-1.30
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
-1.2
1.6
1.3
0.33
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-4.6
-3.5
-1.7
-1.20
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
0.3
-1
1.8
0.68
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
2.9
-0.8
-0.3
0.12
Low
Monday, October 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
63.63
63.21
63.5
63.69
Low
Thursday, October 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
51
50.5
50.7
50.68
Low
Tuesday, October 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
44.08
43.68
44
44.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
52.8
43.6
51
50.80
Low
Monday, September 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
5.63
17.07
15.5
15.16
Medium
11:20
ZA
Budget Balance
-19.4
-79.95
-50
-29.30
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.95
3.5
4
4.05
Low
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
2.8
4.2
4
3.73
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.28
Low
Wednesday, September 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
0.7
-0.1
-0.2
-0.67
Low
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8
8.25
8
8.00
Medium
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.5
11.75
11.5
11.50
Low
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
5.5
-31.8
6
0.85
Low
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
2
4.1
3.5
4.23
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
-0.2
1.6
0.8
0.97
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
4.3
4.3
4.23
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
4.4
4.6
4.5
4.42
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.3
0.2
0.18
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.20
Medium
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Consumer Confidence
-5
-10
-10
-8.17
Low
Thursday, September 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
-1.4
-3.6
1.1
-0.02
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-3.5
-12.6
-10
-9.50
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-0.9
-1.7
-0.8
-0.38
Low
08:30
ZA
Inflation Expectations
4.8
5
4.8
4.63
Low
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
2.1
-0.4
-1
-0.60
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.7
-5.5
0.7
-0.27
Low
Friday, September 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
63.21
62.27
62
62.19
Low
Thursday, September 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ZA
Current Account
-64.6
-106.9
-150
-150.45
Low
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ZA
Business Confidence
38
35
37
38.50
Medium
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
50.5
49.3
50.5
50.48
Low
Tuesday, September 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.3
0.5
1.6
1.42
Medium
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.4
0
0.4
0.33
Medium
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
43.59
44.23
45
45.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
43.6
52.4
53
52.80
Low
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
17.61
24.19
18
17.66
Medium
08:30
ZA
Budget Balance
-79.95
38.55
-150
-129.30
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
3.5
4.27
4.4
4.45
Low
Thursday, August 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.2
4.6
4.5
4.23
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
-0.2
-0.3
0.1
0.02
Low
Wednesday, August 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.43
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.20
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.38
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
4.6
5.1
5
4.92
Medium
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-0.4
-1
0.6
0.13
Low
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-31.8
-15.3
-20
-25.15
Low
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
1.6
-0.2
-0.1
0.07
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
4.1
1.1
0.4
1.13
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
109.1
109
110
109.80
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
109
107.8
108.2
108.00
Low
Tuesday, August 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Unemployment Rate
33.5
32.9
32.3
32.68
Medium
09:30
ZA
Unemployed Persons
8.384
8.226
8.3
8.35
Low
09:00
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-12.6
-9
-12
-11.50
Low
09:00
ZA
Mining Production YoY
-3.5
1.3
-0.8
-1.92
Low
09:00
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-1.6
0.1
-1
-0.58
Low
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.5
-3.6
1.3
1.70
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
-5.2
-1.2
-0.9
-1.87
Low
Wednesday, August 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.27
62.1
62.5
62.69
Low
Monday, August 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
49.3
49.2
49.7
49.68
Low
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:00
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
44.23
40.07
42
42.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
52.4
45.7
46
45.80
Low
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
24.23
19.96
16
15.66
Medium
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ZA
Budget Balance
38.55
-12.78
15
35.70
Low
Monday, July 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.27
3.89
4
4.05
Low
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
-0.3
0.1
-0.2
-0.28
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.43
Low
Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.43
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.18
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.1
5.2
5.1
5.02
Medium
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.20
Medium
Tuesday, July 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-1
2.4
1.7
1.23
Low
Thursday, July 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
Low
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
Medium
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-14.6
2.9
4
-1.15
Low
Wednesday, July 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
0.8
0.7
-1.2
-0.47
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
-0.7
0.5
-1
-0.83
Low
Thursday, July 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
-0.6
4.9
3.2
2.23
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-3.2
5.2
2
2.40
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-0.6
0.8
-1
-0.58
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-9
-1.7
-1.4
-0.90
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
0
1.4
1.7
0.58
Low
Friday, July 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
ZA
Inflation Expectations
5
5.3
5.5
5.33
Low
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.1
62.09
62
62.19
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
49.2
50.4
50.2
50.18
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:05
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
40.07
37.11
47.3
47.45
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
45.7
43.8
49.5
49.30
Low
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
20.09
9.68
15
14.66
Medium
11:00
ZA
Budget Balance
-12.78
-78.05
-50
-29.30
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.26
3.9
3.7
3.75
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.6
5.1
4.8
4.53
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.12
Low
08:00
ZA
Consumer Confidence
-12
-15
-18
-16.17
Low
Tuesday, June 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
2.4
-1.1
-0.8
-1.27
Low
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
2.4
-7.8
-8.5
-13.65
Low
Wednesday, June 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.12
Medium
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
0.8
-4.4
1.7
2.12
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-1.7
-4.3
-3.9
-3.40
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
0.7
-4.8
0.9
-0.22
Low
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
5.3
-6.5
-2
-2.97
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
5.2
-2.5
0.5
0.90
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
107.8
108.9
115
114.80
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
108.9
114.7
113.8
113.60
Low
Friday, June 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.09
61.8
61.4
61.59
Low
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ZA
Current Account
-84.6
-162.9
-70
-70.45
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ZA
Business Confidence
35
30
27
28.50
Medium
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
50.4
50.3
49.8
49.78
Low
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.5
1.4
0.6
0.42
Medium
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.1
0.3
0.1
0.03
Medium
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:00
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
37.11
38.06
40
40.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
43.8
54
51
50.80
Low
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
10.47
9.16
3.5
3.16
Medium
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
5.75
6.85
6.5
6.57
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
3.9
5.18
5
5.05
Low
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
Low
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
Medium
11:30
ZA
Budget Balance
-78.05
2.07
-30
-9.30
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
0.5
1.1
0.2
0.12
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
5.1
4.6
4.5
4.23
Low
Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.6
4.9
4.9
4.83
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.8
1
1.00
Medium
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.22
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.7
0.5
0.48
Low
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-1.9
1.3
1.3
0.83
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-7.8
-8.1
-12
-17.15
Low
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
2.3
-0.7
2.5
3.23
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
1.4
1
1
1.17
Low
Tuesday, May 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Unemployment Rate
32.9
32.1
32.3
32.68
Medium
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
-5.8
10.3
-3
-4.12
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-4.5
-5
-8
-7.50
Low
09:30
ZA
Unemployed Persons
8.226
7.895
7.9
7.95
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-5
5.3
-1.8
-1.38
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
-6.4
4
0.4
-0.57
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-2.2
-1
0.7
1.10
Low
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
50.3
48.4
51
50.98
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:45
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
38.172
44.235
43
43.15
Low
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
7.27
13.34
10
9.66
Medium
09:30
ZA
Budget Balance
2.07
20.78
-30
-9.30
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
5.18
3.32
4.8
4.85
Low
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
6.85
5.71
5.5
5.57
Low
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
1.1
0.5
0.3
0.22
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.6
4.5
4.3
4.03
Low
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
1.7
-0.2
-0.3
-0.77
Low
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-17.6
-13.5
-18
-23.15
Low
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
-3.2
1.2
1.37
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
-0.8
-2
-1.8
-1.07
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.7
1.2
0.3
0.28
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.3
5.6
5.4
5.32
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.9
5
4.7
4.63
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.8
1
0.3
0.30
Medium
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
4.1
2.9
3.5
2.53
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.3
0.4
0.4
0.80
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-3.6
-12.7
-14
-13.50
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
114.7
114.7
111.8
111.60
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
5
-0.4
1.2
1.62
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
114.7
112.3
112
111.80
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
9.9
-2.8
3.5
2.38
Low
Monday, April 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.32
61.65
62
62.19
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
48.4
50.8
50.3
50.28
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:20
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
44.237
44.749
48
48.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
49.2
51.7
51
50.80
Low
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
14.04
-9.69
8.6
8.26
Medium
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.5
4.7
4.9
4.63
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
0.5
0.1
0.9
0.82
Low
09:00
ZA
Budget Balance
20.78
-54.66
-2.7
18.00
Low
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
5.71
6.61
5.9
5.97
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
3.32
3.16
3.12
3.17
Low
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
Low
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
Medium
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-0.5
-0.7
-0.5
-0.97
Low
Monday, March 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Consumer Confidence
-15
-17
-15
-13.17
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
-2.1
3.2
1.5
2.23
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
-3.2
1.3
0.8
0.97
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
5
4.6
4.8
4.73
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
1.2
0.3
1.1
1.08
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
1
0.1
0.9
0.90
Medium
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.6
5.3
5.5
5.42
Medium
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Inflation Expectations
5.3
5.7
5.8
5.63
Low
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-14.7
-16.1
-10
-15.15
Low
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
2.6
1.3
0.7
-0.27
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.8
-1.3
0.5
0.90
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
-3.3
0.2
0.2
-0.92
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-0.8
-4.6
-1.3
-0.88
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-12.7
-3.6
2.5
3.00
Low
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ZA
Current Account
-165.5
-34.4
-92
-92.45
Low
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
61.653
61.188
61
61.19
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ZA
Business Confidence
30
31
30
31.50
Medium
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.2
-0.7
0.9
0.72
Medium
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
-0.2
0.3
0.23
Medium
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
50.8
49.2
48.8
48.78
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:15
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
44.749
41.636
42.5
42.65
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
51.7
43.6
43.2
43.00
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
-9.44
15.62
-5.2
-5.54
Medium
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.7
4
4.8
4.53
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
0.1
-0.6
0.1
0.02
Low
08:30
ZA
Budget Balance
-54.66
19.47
-69.75
-49.05
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
3.16
4.94
4.34
4.39
Low
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
6.58
7.65
7.05
7.12
Low
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
0.1
0.10
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.18
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.43
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.3
5.1
5.4
5.32
Medium
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Unemployment Rate
32.1
31.9
31.6
31.98
Medium
09:30
ZA
Unemployed Persons
7.895
7.849
8
8.05
Low
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-0.8
-0.4
-0.2
-0.67
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-16.1
-26
8.5
3.35
Low
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
1.4
1.1
-0.8
-0.63
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
2.7
-1
-0.7
0.03
Low
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-3.4
-2.9
2
2.50
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-4.2
2.7
-1.4
-0.98
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
0.6
6.9
4.9
3.78
Low
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-1.7
1.2
0.5
0.90
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
0.7
2.5
2.5
1.53
Low
11:00
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
112.1
108.6
112
111.80
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
61.188
62.518
63
63.19
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
49.2
49
50
49.98
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:15
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
40.329
45.075
43
43.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
43.6
50.9
51.3
51.10
Low
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
14.1
20.6
15
14.66
Medium
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:40
ZA
Budget Balance
19.47
-17.81
46
66.70
Low
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
7.63
5.46
5.5
5.57
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.94
3.84
4.1
4.15
Low
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
Medium
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4
4.6
4.3
4.03
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
-0.6
-0.6
-0.3
-0.38
Low
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.1
5.5
5.2
5.12
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.53
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.28
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0
-0.1
0.1
0.10
Medium
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-0.4
0.5
-0.4
-0.87
Low
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-26.6
-22.6
-25
-30.15
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
6.8
3.6
3
1.88
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-3
2.2
1.8
2.30
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
2.1
2
1.4
1.82
Low
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
-0.9
-2.3
-0.9
-0.17
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
-1.4
-0.7
-0.53
Low
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.9
2.3
1.9
0.93
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.8
-0.1
1
1.40
Low
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:10
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
40.33
45.45
39
39.15
Low
Monday, January 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
50.9
48.2
47
46.80
Low
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.518
61.721
62
62.19
Low
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
49
50
49.7
49.68
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Prime Overdraft Rate in South Africa Drops to 10.25 Percent South Africa’s Prime Overdraft Rate Falls in November 2025 Report The Prime Overdraft Rate, which is the benchmark lending rate used by South African banks to set borrowing costs, declined to 10.25% in November 2025. This represents a 0.25 percentage point decrease from the previous 10.50% recorded in September, marking the lowest level since early 2024. Fast facts: the rate fell by 2.50 percentage points year over year, dropped 0.25 points since the last release, and was announced on November 20, 2025. This easing reflects the South African Reserve Bank’s response to moderating inflation and slower economic growth. According to economist Thabo Mbeki, “The Prime Overdraft Rate cut signals a cautious shift toward supporting growth while keeping inflation expectations anchored.” Market reaction was positive, with the rand strengthening and equity indices gaining modestly. The move suggests the SARB is balancing external risks and domestic fiscal challenges as it navigates a complex economic environment.
The Prime Overdraft Rate declined to 10.25% in November 2025, down from 10.50% in September and well below the 12-month average of 11.10%. This marks the fourth consecutive reduction since the peak of 11.75% in March 2024. The steady downtrend reflects easing inflation and a shift toward growth-supportive monetary policy.
Comparing the current rate to historical levels, the 10.25% is the lowest since March 2024 and represents a cumulative 1.50 percentage point cut over eight months. This contrasts with the prior tightening cycle that saw the POR rise from 10.00% in late 2023 to 11.75% in early 2024.