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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Prime Overdraft Rate held to 10.5% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
South Africa Prime Overdraft Rate held to 10.5% in July 2026. The reading matched the 10.75% consensus. Prime Overdraft Rate is now the highest in 11 months.
Latest Release
10.5
Actual
10.75
Consensus
10.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 10.75
Actual: 10.5
Error: +0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/ZAR | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Prime Overdraft Rate (South Africa) was reported at 10.5% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 10.75% by 0.25%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10.38%, ranging from 10.25% to 10.5% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 10.42%, up from the prior three at 10.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.13%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.32%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Prime Overdraft Rate has averaged 10.92%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Sep 23) and Inflation Rate YoY (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Prime Overdraft Rate - ZA
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About Prime Overdraft Rate — South Africa
DEFINITION
The Prime Overdraft Rate is a financial indicator that measures the interest rate charged by banks for overdrafts on their customers' accounts. This rate is typically tied to the prime rate, which is the benchmark interest rate used by banks for their most creditworthy customers. The Prime Overdraft Rate is an important tool for banks to manage their liquidity and profitability, and it can also impact consumers' borrowing costs and overall financial health. This indicator is closely monitored by financial institutions, economists, and policymakers as it reflects the current state of the economy and can influence lending and spending decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 10.5 %, consensus 10.75 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 10.5 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 10.25 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.67) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | ZA | Inflation Expectations | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.40 | Low | |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.7 | 1.65 | Low | |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales YoY | 1.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low | |