Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Private Sector Credit YoY fell to 6.23% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
South Africa Private Sector Credit YoY fell to 6.23% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 1.24% from August's 7.47% reading. The reading missed the 7.5% consensus by 1.27%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 8.18%. Over the past 3 months, Private Sector Credit YoY averaged 7.44%, vs 8.52% in the prior 3-month window. Private Sector Credit YoY is now the lowest in 11 months.
Latest Release
6.23
Actual
7.5
Consensus
7.47
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.68 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 7.6
Actual: 6.23
Error: +1.36
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.78 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Private Sector Credit YoY (South Africa) was reported at 6.23% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 7.5% by 1.27%. The reading fell from the previous value of 7.47%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8.16%, ranging from 6.23% to 10.5% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 7.04%, down from the prior three at 8.52%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.1%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.84%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Private Sector Credit YoY has averaged 5.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.68%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Nov 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Private Sector Credit YoY - ZA
Loading chart data...
About Private Sector Credit YoY — South Africa
DEFINITION
Private Sector Credit YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the annual change in the amount of credit extended to the private sector by financial institutions. This includes loans, mortgages, and other forms of credit. It is a key indicator of the overall health and growth of the private sector, as well as the availability and cost of credit for businesses and individuals. A positive YoY change indicates an increase in credit and potential economic expansion, while a negative change may signal a decrease in credit and potential economic contraction. Private Sector Credit YoY is closely monitored by economists and investors as it can provide valuable insights into the current and future state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 6.23 %, consensus 7.5 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 7.47 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 7.41 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.78) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | ZA | Private Sector Credit YoY | 6.23 | 7.47 | 7.5 | 6.87 | Low |
| 09:30 | ZA | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.2 | 5 | 5.7 | 5.95 | Low |
| 09:30 | ZA | Producer Price Index MoM | 1 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Low |