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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Producer Price Index MoM fell to -0.1% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
South Africa Producer Price Index MoM fell to -0.1% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 2.7% from May's 2.6% reading. The reading missed the 1.8% consensus by 1.9%. Producer Price Index MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index MoM averaged 2.8%, vs 0.3% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 19th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.1
Actual
1.8
Consensus
2.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.28 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2.38
Actual: -0.1
Error: +2.48
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/ZAR | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index MoM (South Africa) was reported at -0.1% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.8% by 1.9%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.57%, ranging from -0.2% to 3% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.83%, up from the prior three at 0%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.08%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.3%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/ZAR, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.28%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Producer Price Index MoM - ZA
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About Producer Price Index MoM — South Africa
DEFINITION
South Africa's Producer Price Index MoM fell to -0.100000% in July, missing the 1.800000% estimate and reversing June's 2.600000% gain. This contraction signals easing inflationary pressures at the producer level after two months of strong increases. Market focus will shift to upcoming inflation data and central bank commentary for further guidance. Updated 7/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -0.1 %, consensus 1.8 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 2.6 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.41) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | ZA | Balance of Trade | 17.75 | 4.44 | 32 | 24.88 | Medium |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | ZA | ABSA Manufacturing PMI | 47.3 | 49 | 51.95 | Low | |