The Big 3
Table of Contents
America’s three money-center giants—Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan (JPM), and Citigroup (C)—remain the bellwethers for Wall Street and Main Street, holding roughly $10 trillion in assets and more than $3 trillion in corporate credit lines. As the Federal Reserve seems likely to slash rates towards the end of 2025, the operating and market outlook of these powerhouse banks will be in focus. In this article, we will take a look at fundamental and technical analysis of each company, review consensus price targets from our Sigmanomics analysts, and provide viewpoints from industry leading economists and analysts.
Current Economic State
The current economic landscape shows that the federal funds rate is in the range of 5.25% to 5.50%. Futures markets suggest that we may see two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of 2025. If this happens, rates would still remain above 4%. While the Federal Reserve has discussed the possibility of rate cuts, they have taken a cautious “wait-and-see” approach and have not made significant moves in that direction. Additionally, there is a major concern regarding consumer prices, which continue to stay stubbornly high. JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon said in April that the economy faces “stormy seas,” citing residual inflation and geopolitical tension. One month later, he told Bloomberg that stagflation “is still a risk we cannot ignore.”
At the end of May 2025, the 60-day correlation between Bank of America and SPY stood at 0.63, with the correlation rising 57% in the last 12 months (June 2024 to June 2025). This correlation is worth noting because it displays that BAC swings wider than the broad market.
UBS upgraded stock to Buy with a price target of $53, with Erika Najarian stating “the market still under-appreciates BAC’s gearing to a steeper curve once the Fed pivots.” Also sharing topside view of BAC is Morgan Stanley’s Betsy Graseck. Betsy projected overweight, forecasted 45% total-return potential through theend of 2026.
Taking a look at the weekly chart, JPM recent high stalled at the 361.8% Fibonacci extension. After a minor pull back, the stock is attempting to retest highs at the end of May 2025; however, failure to overtake recent highs could see consolidation and a possible dip below $200 in 2026 according to our analysts at Sigmanomics.
Tipranks recently provided a price target of $278.32 with a high of $330, while MarketBeat consensus for JP Morgan is $266.65 (+1%).
Citigroup
Wells Fargo’s Mike Mayo lifted its price target to $110 for Citi, stating “no other bank comes close on deep-value turnaround potential.” For income seekers, Citi is seen as valuable as its 3% forward yield combined with a low pay-out (35%) and management hints of gradual hikes make it the income standout.
