Bitcoin Breaks Records: Surges Past $123K Amid Market Optimism
Bitcoin has broken a new record. The latest rally also saw the value of the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem reach a new high. But, as it is often the case during crypto bull runs, one wonders if this surge is sustainable or it is just another speculative bubble.
On Monday, during intraday trading, Bitcoin’s price reached $123,09.61. CoinMarketCap data shows that this is the first time the price reaches, and crosses, the $123,000 mark. And this latest record price put Bitcoin’s value at 30% higher than at the beginning of the year.
At writing (July 18), the cryptocurrency had retreated to just under $121,000. However, the price remains within the record-high region, and its valuation makes Bitcoin the fifth most valuable tradable asset in the world behind Gold, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple, and ahead of Amazon, Silver, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms.
What Drove The Price Surge?
By the end of the day on Friday, July 12, Bitcoin was hovering around $117,000. This was after it broke above the $110,000 resistance that had held for much of July. Over the weekend through to Monday, price momentum built up, culminating in the record valuation in intraday trading.
According to CoinShares, the rally was triggered by the release of the Fed minutes on July 9. The minutes indicated that most Fed officials did not favor a rate cut in July. The officials are cautious due to inflation risks, especially from President Trump’s tariff policies. Most officials expect the cuts to come later this year, although not urgently, likely in September and December. As per CoinShares’ analysis, the market took this sentiment as “a green light” to pile into Bitcoin.
Once the rally had caught on, the inertia of the price momentum was powerful enough to force crypto shorts to capitulate. A CoinGlass analysis concluded that this price momentum resulted in the largest single-day short squeeze of the year, worth about $1 billion. Much of the short squeeze came from BTC.
But what kept the momentum strong? CoinShares identified “a round of very strong inflows into the U.S. ETFs” as the strongest tailwind. Data shows that net inflows into US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $14.83 billion the week before the record price. The figure surpasses the $14.82 billion inflows registered by the same time last year. Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are like a stock that you can buy through a regular investment account. The fund tracks the token’s actual price, so investors can invest in Bitcoin without needing to figure out how to buy and store the cryptocurrency themselves.
Institutional buyer activity also helped fan the price momentum. On July 14 alone, Metaplanet acquired 1,005 BTC for $108.1 million. Between July 7 and July 13, Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) added 4,225 BTC to its bulging treasury. At 601,550 BTC, Strategy is now the world’s largest corporate bitcoin holder.
Expert observers view “Crypto Week” as the biggest catalyst of Bitcoin’s record-breaking performance. The House Committee on Financial Services Chairman French Hill, House Committee on Agriculture Chairman GT Thompson, and House Leadership declared the week of July 14, 2025, as “Crypto Week” to rally members to pass three major cryptocurrency-related bills. The three bills are the GENIUS Act (focuses on stablecoin regulation), CLARITY Act (aims to define Bitcoin as a commodity), and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (blocks the Federal Reserve from creating or piloting any kind of central bank digital currency (CBDC) unless Congress gives the green light).
On Thursday, the House passed the GENIUS Act, and all that remains is the President’s signature. The other two also sailed through but will move to the Senate for further consideration. TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg noted this week that “passing this bill [GENIUS Act] is symbolically important.” To Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO, the “big impact of ‘Crypto Week’ legislation will be reduced risk and downside volatility in the crypto market.”
Even before the House assembled to consider the three bills, some experts were already praising the optics around them as a key catalyst. “Even if final passage stalls, the optics of legislative engagement are bullish,” said Bitfinex’s Jag Kooner.
AJ Bell’s Dan Coatsworth referred to “Crypto Week” as a watershed moment for the cryptocurrency space, which would fuel a rally. “Investors are racing to take positions ahead of the extra publicity this event could attract,” he said.
Will This Price Cycle Be Different?
Bitcoin has been declared dead 463 times since it launched in 2009. Obituaries have often appeared at the end of a price cycle. According to a Fidelity report, Bitcoin has experienced four distinct price cycles since 2010. Each cycle is characterized by a major bull run that culminates in a new all-time high price, then a correction of 50% or more.
The first cycle ran from 2011 to 2013. Early adopters and media attention propelled the token from a near-zero value to a $1,137 peak in November 2013. The developers also reduced the block reward for Bitcoin mining from 50 BTC to 25 BTC in 2012, dubbed the first halving cycle. This event was a major catalyst for the 2013 peak.
The second price cycle began in December 2013 and ended in December 2017, according to Fidelity. Again, this cycle was fueled by the second halving cycle, as well as the initial coin offering (ICO) boom and global adoption of cryptocurrencies. The price touched $19,891 but then crashed to $3,122 in just one year.
The third halving cycle of 2020 (reward was reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC) drove the third price cycle, from 2017 to 2021. Corporate adoption, such as Tesla’s $1.5 billion BTC purchase) and decentralized finance (DeFi) growth, pushed Bitcoin to $68,789, an all-time high, in November 2021. A bear market followed, with prices dropping to $16,500 by November 2022.
Fidelity identifies the current cycle as having started in 2023. Many factors are powering this cycle, including the April 20, 2024, halving (fourth halving cycle), the SEC approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, institutional inflows, and Trump’s pro-crypto policies.
Unlike previous price cycles, experts believe the current bull market will hold out longer. Token Metrics’ Ian Balina proposes a “lengthening cycles” theory, suggesting the 2025 bull market could extend significantly longer than past cycles, potentially into 2026, due to institutional participation and macroeconomic factors. He predicts Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in this cycle, driven by the April 2024 halving and sustained demand.
Geoff Kendrick, head of research at Standard Chartered Digital Asset, asserts that Bitcoin has “moved beyond the previous dynamic” of peaking 18 months post-halving. This is because of increased investor flows, and he predicts a $200,000 price by year-end 2025.
Market Reaction
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency and is responsible for more than half of the entire crypto ecosystem’s valuation. As such, it comes as no surprise that the token’s surge lifted several altcoins.
Ethereum (ETH) ended the day (July 14) at $3,005.99, higher than it closed on Friday (July 12) at $2,921.36. ETH has since climbed 19.57% to $3,615.93 as of July 18, according to CoinMarketCap data.
XRP is up 32.61% over the past seven days, Tether (USDT) has barely moved (0.03%), and BNB has gained 6.88%.
The biggest gainer over the past seven trading days is Curve DAO Token (CRV), which is up 58.33%, followed by Stellar (XLM) at 54.64%.
The CoinGlass Derivatives Index (CGDI), which tracks the performance of the global crypto derivatives market, has accelerated sharply since July 14. CGDI is up 15.60% (as at July 18) from the July 12 levels, and is on course to break above the all-time high established in December 2024.
