November 2025 Forex Outlook

The forex market heads in November 2025 in different light than a quarter ago. To date, the U.S. federal reserve cut rates 25bp for the first time this year, moving rates into 4.00%-4.25% range. With that being said, markets are expected another rate cut at the end of October 2025, and another one priced in for December 2025. These cuts are seen in CME’s FedWatch tool and in the Fed’s own September minutes. In parallel, the European Central Bank has been on hold at 2.00 percent since September and judged the current stance “robust enough to manage shocks.” The Bank of England has also shifted into an “on hold, but not done” cadence at 4.00 percent. To the contrary, the Bank of Japan is still running the world’s lowest G-7 policy rate at 0.50 percent as it tries to entrench a fragile exit from deflation psychology. With all being said, the OECD’s outlook as of September 2025 describes a world economy that has proved resilient but is set to slow from 3.3 percent growth in 2025 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 2.9 percent in 2026. The OECD even estimates the effective U.S. tariff rate had climbed to 19.5 percent by end of August, which is the highest in decades. The FX market is now re-pricing carry, growth, and safety simultaneously as November event risk approaches.