Oil Shrugs Off Venezuelan Invasion as Markets Drift Into a Wedge of Uncertainty
The U.S. just conducted military operations in Venezuela’s capital, abducted its leader, and oil barely flinched. Welcome to 2026.
Crude is up a mere 40 cents on the day. The VIX is actually sitting negative. And the major indices? They’re trapped in what can only be described as a “slotfest”—a technical pattern as uninspiring as it sounds.
The Indices: Waiting for a Breakout
The S&P 500 is off about 2%, nothing dramatic, but the broader picture reveals a market stuck in limbo. We’re seeing higher highs from November through late December, paired with higher lows—a wedge formation that must eventually resolve. The question isn’t whether this pattern will break, but which direction it’ll choose.
The NASDAQ tells a slightly different story with lower highs meeting higher lows, forming a triangle with apparent floor support around 21,100. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 continues its quiet climb, posting higher highs and higher lows as small caps maintain their momentum.
The Volatility Paradox
Perhaps nothing captures the current market disconnect more than the volatility index. VIX futures are trading negative on the day, hovering around 14.5—remarkably subdued given the geopolitical backdrop. For those seeking market hedging plays, S&P options remain relatively cheap.
Bitcoin: A Bearish Flag Nobody Wants to Acknowledge
For all the crypto evangelists predicting Bitcoin at $15 million, the chart tells a humbler tale. The cryptocurrency is forming what appears to be a bearish flag pattern—a sharp decline followed by an unconvincing rally.
If the technicals hold, the measured move points toward $60,000 as the next target. Currently trading around $90,000, Bitcoin reminds us of that infamous pizza purchase from the early days when someone paid thousands of Bitcoin for a meal that would now cost the equivalent of a small nation’s GDP.
Currency Corner: The Euro's 17% Hamburger Advantage
The euro has strengthened significantly against the dollar, currently trading around 1.17—up from near parity back in August. In practical terms, if you’re an American heading to Europe, your burger-buying power just dropped 17%. Europeans visiting the States, on the other hand, are eating well.
The Bargain Bin: Oversold and Forgotten
Several major names are trading at eye-watering discounts from their five-year highs:
- Charter Communications: Down 75%—though the CEO says recovery will take “two to six years” (read: probably twelve)
- Align Technology: Off 78%
- Walgreens: Down 79%
- PayPal: Massively off its peak, with a website that looks like it hasn’t been updated since 1999
- DocuSign: Also well off highs, though notably still in widespread daily use
Netflix is also showing weakness, breaking support with a potential leg down toward $82 ahead of earnings. Season 5 of Stranger Things? Good, but not that good.
A Contrarian Retail Play
Lululemon has staged a modest turnaround, bouncing from $170 back up to $210. The company makes products that last—perhaps too well. One shirt purchased in 2008, worn weekly, remains in fantastic shape 18 years later. When your clothes refuse to wear out, repeat purchases become optional. Not exactly the growth story Wall Street loves, but quality counts for something.
Banks: The Unexpected Winners
The strongest sector right now? Financials. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America are all trading near five-year highs. With interest rates coming down and a potential rotation out of weakening tech, banks have emerged as the unlikely darlings of this market.
Looking Ahead
The Venezuelan situation bears watching for any market follow-through. But if today’s muted reaction is any indication, geopolitical risk may be the most underpriced asset in 2026.
As always, we’ll keep you posted.
Matthew Williamson, RIA
Matthew W. brings a rare blend of fundamental insight and technical precision to the Sigmanomics Education team. As a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) and fiduciary portfolio manager, Matthew oversees multi-asset portfolios for private clients, integrating macro-economic research with disciplined risk-management frameworks. His options-first perspective—refined over years of live trading—shapes hedging strategies that limit downside while unlocking asymmetric return potential.
