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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
KosovoKosovo Balance of Trade fell to -463.9M in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Kosovo Balance of Trade fell to -463.9M in February 2026, released March 2026, down 98M from January's -365.9M reading. The reading missed the -380M consensus by 83.9M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -401.18M.
Latest Release
-463.9
Actual
-380
Consensus
-365.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±63.17 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: -380
Actual: -463.9
Error: +83.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Kosovo) was reported at -463.90 million in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of -380.00 million by 83.90 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -365.90 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -453.53 million, down from the prior three at -352.84 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 63.17 million.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Balance of Trade - XK
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About Balance of Trade — Kosovo
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual -463.9 M, consensus -380 M. Prior reading (Nov 2025): -469.9 M. Before that (Mar 2023): -426.8 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.