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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AzerbaijanAzerbaijan Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 1.5% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Azerbaijan Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 1.5% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.3% from August's 1.2% reading. The print exceeded the 1.1% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.93%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged 1.3%, vs 0.18% in the prior 3-month window. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the highest in 7 months.
Latest Release
1.5
Actual
1.1
Consensus
1.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.3 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 1.28
Actual: 1.5
Error: -0.22
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Azerbaijan) was reported at 1.5% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.1% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.11%, ranging from 0% to 1.7% across 14 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.37%, up from the prior three at 0.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.54%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.64%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Gross Domestic Product YoY has averaged 1.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.3%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - AZ
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Azerbaijan
DEFINITION
Azerbaijan's Gross Domestic Product YoY rose to 1.500000% in September, beating the 1.100000% estimate. This marks an increase from August's 1.200000%, indicating accelerating economic growth. The stronger reading may influence market expectations and monetary policy considerations. Updated 10/9/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 1.5 %, consensus 1.1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 1.2 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 1.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AZ Events
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | AZ | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.58 | Low |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | AZ | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.58 | Low |