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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AzerbaijanAzerbaijan Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 1.2% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Azerbaijan Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 1.2% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.2% from July's 1.4% reading. The reading matched the 1.2% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.94%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged 1.1%, vs -0.03% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 59th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.2
Actual
1.2
Consensus
1.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.35 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 1.13
Actual: 1.2
Error: -0.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Azerbaijan) was reported at 1.2% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 1.2% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.08%, ranging from 0% to 1.7% across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.13%, up from the prior three at 0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.55%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.64%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.35%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 13, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - AZ
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Azerbaijan
DEFINITION
Azerbaijan's Gross Domestic Product YoY for August came in at 1.200000%, matching estimates but down from July's 1.400000%, indicating a slowdown in annual growth. The economy expanded at a slower pace compared to the previous month, reflecting a deceleration trend. Market participants will watch upcoming data for further clarity on growth momentum. Updated 9/9/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 1.2 %, consensus 1.2 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 1.4 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AZ Events
| Thursday, September 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | AZ | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |