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Data from World Bank. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil GDP growth (annual %) fell to 2.91 Percentage (%) in January 2023
World BankYearlyReleased January 2023
Brazil GDP growth (annual %) fell to 2.91 Percentage (%) in January 2023, down 0.11 Percentage (%) from December's 3.02 Percentage (%) reading.
Latest Release
2.91
Latest (2023)
3.02
Previous
World Bank
Source
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.84 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.80 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.78 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Brazil GDP Growth Rate (Brazil) was reported at 1,135,083.00 Percent in March 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 1,142,240.60 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1,093,258.10 Percent, ranging from 1,023,703.20 Percent to 1,143,880.50 Percent across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1,140,401.37 Percent, up from the prior three at 1,050,368.47 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 40,635.35 Percent) is comparable than the prior year (σ 41,342.68 Percent). In June readings over the past 3 years, Brazil GDP Growth Rate has averaged 1,053,987.40 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/BRL (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 4) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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GDP growth (annual %) - BR
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About GDP growth (annual %) — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil GDP Growth Rate for May registered at 1142240.600000 BRL, slightly missing April's 1143880.500000 BRL. The marginal decline indicates a near-stagnant economic output between April and May. Market focus now shifts to upcoming data releases for clearer growth momentum signals. Updated 6/16/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 1,135,083 Percent. Prior reading (May 2026): 1,142,240.6 Percent. Before that (Apr 2026): 1,143,880.5 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/BRL (Bearish USD, r=-0.84) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.8 | 49.7 | 51.25 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | BR | IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM | 0.18 | 0.4 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production YoY | 0.2 | -0.8 | -0.80 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.3 | 50.8 | 50.80 | Medium | |
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Composite PMI | 50.7 | 49.8 | 49.80 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14.25 | 14.25 | 14.25 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 18:00 | BR | Balance of Trade | 9.76 | 9.9 | 9.90 | Medium | |