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Data from World Bank. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil GDP growth (annual %) fell to 2.91 Percentage (%) in January 2023
World BankYearlyReleased January 2023
Brazil GDP growth (annual %) fell to 2.91 Percentage (%) in January 2023, down 0.11 Percentage (%) from December's 3.02 Percentage (%) reading.
Latest Release
2.91
Latest (2023)
3.02
Previous
World Bank
Source
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.78 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Brazil GDP Growth Rate (Brazil) was reported at 1,136,769.30 Percent in June 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 1,149,930.80 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1,111,158.81 Percent, ranging from 1,023,703.20 Percent to 1,167,869.00 Percent across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1,151,523.03 Percent, up from the prior three at 1,140,401.37 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 46,642.52 Percent) is comparable than the prior year (σ 44,038.92 Percent). In September readings over the past 3 years, Brazil GDP Growth Rate has averaged 1,068,211.43 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/BRL, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include BCB Focus Market Readout (Nov 2) and BCB Focus Market Readout (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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GDP growth (annual %) - BR
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About GDP growth (annual %) — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil GDP Growth Rate for September registered at 1136769.3 BRL, down from August’s 1149930.8 BRL, marking a decline in economic output. The decrease from August to September indicates a contraction after two months of relative stability. Market participants will watch upcoming data for signs of sustained momentum amid this pullback. Updated 10/14/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 1,136,769.3 Percent. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 1,149,930.8 Percent. Before that (Jul 2026): 1,167,869 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.78) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 44.8 | 43 | 41.90 | Low | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | BR | IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM | 0.51 | 0.7 | 0.48 | Low | |
| 17:30 | BR | Net Payrolls | 165.83 | 180 | 180.00 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 13.75 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |