Bovespa (^BVSP) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis
^BVSP
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View All Forecasts →Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Containment = share of graded forecast-days the 60% band held; its 95% interval counts independent windows only (n_eff, non-overlapping, stride = horizon) — per-symbol audit; static backtest copy where the audit has no n_eff yet. Magnitude only, not a directional record.
7 of 7 models in band
± 10.43% expected move
backtest — refresh paused (#568)
Actionable · size by band. The validated edge is magnitude, not direction.
Coherent near-term trend; possible regime shift if 1W turns.
Context, not a trade signal · forward test pending.
Descriptive — does not size the band.
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Suitability · premium context. Whether options are rich or cheap to own here — sizing input, not a price call.
^BVSP's calibrated band puts the expected move at ±6.8% over 7 days, widening to ±16.1% over 28.
Sigmacast expected range · containment-audited · early record · 50.6% (83 forecast-days · n_eff=8 independent windows) · CI 22–79% · as of 7 Nov 2026 · n_eff as of 8 Nov 2026 → full record
Across 83 graded 14-day forecast-days since 11 Jun 2026 (8 independent windows), ^BVSP's expected-range band contained price 50.6% of the time (95% CI 22–79%; stated rate: 80%).
As of November 8, 2026, ^BVSP is trading at 168498.45. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this index generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
SETUP
The Bovespa (^BVSP) is a market index covered by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The ^BVSP index closed at 168,422.03 on November 6, 2026, reflecting a gain of 1.03% from the previous close of 166,697.40.
WHAT'S DRIVING IT
Over the past 30 days, the index has experienced a strong downtrend with a decline of 8.56%, ranging between 164,446.53 and 209,713.45. The price currently trades below its 20-day moving average of 189,780.60. The 14-day RSI stands at 30.0, in oversold territory.
THE RISK
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 3.20%, reflecting heightened price variability for this index. Over the past 52 weeks, ^BVSP traded between 152,367.52 (Nov 7, 2025) and 209,713.45 (Oct 9, 2026); the current price sits 19.7% below the 52-week high.
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT
Daily-return volatility of 3.20% runs elevated for this index, so price ranges are likely to stay wide — watch how price behaves around its recent range rather than treating any single level as fixed. ^BVSP is currently trading 11.25% below its 20-day moving average and sitting in the middle of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 30.0, currently in oversold territory.
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Brazil IPCA Inflation Monthly (BR) (r=+0.89), Brazilian Service Sector Growth MoM (BR) (r=+0.58), IGP-M Inflation MoM (BR) (r=+0.58), IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM (BR) (r=+0.52)
Inversely correlated: Brazilian Service Sector Growth YoY (BR) (r=-0.66), Nominal Budget Balance (BR) (r=-0.64), Retail Sales MoM (BR) (r=-0.53), Primary Budget Surplus (BR) (r=-0.52)
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Nov 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.Related Pairs
Correlated Economic Indicators
Primary economy: Brazil economic indicators
