What is the Bovespa forecast?

The Bovespa (^BVSP) is forecasted using our adaptive model ensemble that generates 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day predictions with confidence intervals and expected zone analysis. View the latest Bovespa forecast on this page.

What is the Bovespa expected price range?

The Bovespa expected move is estimated as a symmetric range around the current level across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, derived from recent realized volatility. These are magnitude estimates, not directional predictions — see the expected-move ranges on this page.

How accurate are Bovespa predictions?

Sigmanomics tracks all forecast accuracy transparently. View median absolute error and zone-containment metrics for Bovespa and all other instruments on our Performance page at sigmanomics.com/performance.

How much could ^BVSP move?

^BVSP has an expected move of roughly ±1.9% over 7 days, ±2.9% over 14 days, ±4.5% over 28 days — symmetric ranges around the current price derived from recent realized volatility. These are magnitude estimates, not directional predictions. ^BVSP's recent path efficiency (ER) is 0.06 over the trailing 14 sessions, indicating a choppy, range-bound path.

Bovespa (^BVSP) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Primary economy: Brazil economic indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.

Bovespa (^BVSP) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Sigmacast expected range · 7–28-day calibrated zone

Forecast batch: 8/7/26

^BVSP's band is still building its audit record. Sigmacast's calibrated band is sized from realized volatility and graded against every terminal close as its audit record builds. Horizon grades appear as each one's history matures — current status is below.

Market-data read

^BVSP reads range-bound — no clean directional character at any horizon (ER 0.19 / 0.06 / 0.01). Recent action is directionless chop rather than a trend. Term-structure band: ±1.9% / ±2.9% / ±4.5% (7/14/28d).

short-term trend: choppy · flat7d

7 Day^prov

± 1.9%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.14

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

7-day window · fewer obs, noisier

60/80/95 · ±1.9/2.9/4.6%

medium-term trend: choppy · flat14d

14 Day^prov

± 2.9%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.06

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±2.9/4.4/7.1%

long-term trend: choppy · flat28d

28 Day^prov

± 4.5%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.01

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±4.5/6.8/11.0%

Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)

Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)

8 correlated indicators

Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.

Positively correlated: S&P Global Composite PMI (r=+0.91), Brazil IPCA Inflation Monthly (r=+0.77), Brazilian Service Sector Growth MoM (r=+0.65)

Inversely correlated: Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month (r=-0.85), Brazilian Service Sector Growth YoY (r=-0.69), Primary Budget Surplus (r=-0.67), Budget Balance (r=-0.64), Nominal Budget Balance (r=-0.64)

^BVSP

indices

Current Price

August 08, 2026

Market Closed

175546.36

Actual

July 08, 2026

+3.16%

170176.11

1 Month Ago

August 08, 2025

+17.96%

148817.80

1 Year Ago

Upcoming Forecasts

View All Forecasts →

^BVSP · INDICES

14-DAY FORECAST · 8/22/26

EXPECTED MOVE± 2.9%range 170467.27 – 180625.45 · 14D

Upper / lower bound180625.45 / 170467.27

Outside-range leveloutside 170467.27 – 180625.45price exits the expected band (either side)

Containment~60% (provisional)band hits its stated rate (backtest)

Term structure · expected move by horizon

Containment = how often the band held (backtest) — magnitude only, not a directional record.

Outcome legend

Magnitude · primary

How big was the move vs the forecast band?

+12.4%band-relative outcome efficiency

—efficiency not yet computed for this trade

Zone

Did price stay inside the expected band?

CONTAINEDentry price inside the expected band

BREACHED HIGHentry above the band's upper bound

BREACHED LOWentry below the band's lower bound

· · · Explore all 9 models across all timeframes on Sigmanomics · · ·

Signal Tracker Record / PerformancePast Performance →

Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.

Market-data read

SETUP

The Bovespa (^BVSP) is a market index covered by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The ^BVSP index closed at 172,508.67 on August 7, 2026, reflecting a decline of 1.76% from the previous close of 175,598.56.

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

Over the past 30 days, the index has experienced a sideways movement with a decline of 0.30%, ranging between 169,665.53 and 180,679.47. The price currently trades below its 20-day moving average of 175,681.60. The 14-day RSI stands at 42.6, in neutral territory, indicating balanced momentum.

THE RISK

Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 1.05%, reflecting typical price variability for this index.

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Daily-return volatility of 1.05% runs elevated for this index, so price ranges are likely to stay wide — watch how price behaves around its recent range rather than treating any single level as fixed. ^BVSP is currently trading 1.81% below its 20-day moving average. Its 14-day RSI reads 42.6, currently in neutral territory.

Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Aug 2026.

Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.

Primary economy: Brazil economic indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

Sigmacast expected range · 7–28-day calibrated zone

Forecast batch: 8/7/26

Market-data read

short-term trend: choppy · flat7d

7 Day^prov

± 1.9%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.14

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

7-day window · fewer obs, noisier

60/80/95 · ±1.9/2.9/4.6%

medium-term trend: choppy · flat14d

14 Day^prov

± 2.9%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.06

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±2.9/4.4/7.1%

long-term trend: choppy · flat28d

28 Day^prov

± 4.5%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.01

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±4.5/6.8/11.0%

Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)

Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)

8 correlated indicators

Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.

Positively correlated: S&P Global Composite PMI (r=+0.91), Brazil IPCA Inflation Monthly (r=+0.77), Brazilian Service Sector Growth MoM (r=+0.65)

^BVSP

indices

Current Price

August 08, 2026

Market Closed

175546.36

Actual

July 08, 2026

+3.16%

170176.11

1 Month Ago

August 08, 2025

+17.96%

148817.80

1 Year Ago

Upcoming Forecasts

View All Forecasts →

^BVSP · INDICES

14-DAY FORECAST · 8/22/26

EXPECTED MOVE± 2.9%range 170467.27 – 180625.45 · 14D

Upper / lower bound180625.45 / 170467.27

Outside-range leveloutside 170467.27 – 180625.45price exits the expected band (either side)

Containment~60% (provisional)band hits its stated rate (backtest)

Term structure · expected move by horizon

Containment = how often the band held (backtest) — magnitude only, not a directional record.

Outcome legend

Magnitude · primary

How big was the move vs the forecast band?

+12.4%band-relative outcome efficiency

—efficiency not yet computed for this trade

Zone

Did price stay inside the expected band?

CONTAINEDentry price inside the expected band

BREACHED HIGHentry above the band's upper bound

BREACHED LOWentry below the band's lower bound

· · · Explore all 9 models across all timeframes on Sigmanomics · · ·

Signal Tracker Record / PerformancePast Performance →

Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.

Market-data read

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 1.05%, reflecting typical price variability for this index.

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Aug 2026.

Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.

Bovespa (^BVSP) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

Bovespa (^BVSP) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

^BVSP

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

^BVSP

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

Bovespa (^BVSP) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

Bovespa (^BVSP) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

^BVSP

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

→ SETUP

→ WHAT'S DRIVING IT

→ THE RISK

→ WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

^BVSP

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

→ SETUP

→ WHAT'S DRIVING IT

→ THE RISK

→ WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT