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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MaltaMalta Retail Sales YoY fell to 5.5% in November 2022
FMPMonthlyReleased January 2023
Malta Retail Sales YoY fell to 5.5% in November 2022, released January 2023, down 1.7% from October's 7.2% reading. The print exceeded the 4.5% consensus by 1.0%. Retail Sales YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 7.3%, vs 6.33% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 16th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5.5
Actual
4.5
Consensus
7.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2023
Predicted: 6.25
Actual: 5.5
Error: +0.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Malta) was reported at 5.5% in January 2023. This beat the market consensus of 4.5% by 1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 7.2%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 6.7%, up from the prior three at 6.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.13%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2023.
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Retail Sales YoY - MT
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About Retail Sales YoY — Malta
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Nov 2022): actual 5.5 %, consensus 4.5 %. Prior reading (Oct 2022): 7.2 %. Before that (Sep 2022): 7.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.