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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ArmeniaArmenia Retail Sales YoY held to -0.1% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Armenia Retail Sales YoY held to -0.1% in July 2026, released August 2026. The print exceeded the -0.3% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.55%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged -0.05%, vs 1.97% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales YoY is now the lowest in 34 months.
Latest Release
-0.1
Actual
-0.3
Consensus
-0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.94 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -1.08
Actual: -0.1
Error: -0.97
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Armenia) was reported at -0.1% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.3% by 0.2%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.32%, ranging from -0.1% to 5.6% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.07%, down from the prior three at 2.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.65%) is lower than the prior year (σ 4.99%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales YoY has averaged 5.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.94%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 25, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - AM
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About Retail Sales YoY — Armenia
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.1 %, consensus -0.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.1 %. Before that (May 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AM Events
| Tuesday, August 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | AM | Retail Sales YoY | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.20 | Low |
| 08:00 | AM | Producer Price Index YoY | 8.5 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 8.50 | Low |
| 08:00 | AM | Economic Activity YoY | 6.5 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 7.05 | Low |
| 08:00 | AM | Balance of Trade | -699.1 | -599.6 | -495 | -597.05 | Low |
| 08:00 | AM | Industrial Production YoY | 3.1 | 4 | 3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 08:00 | AM | Construction Output YoY | 26.5 | 25.4 | 24.7 | 25.60 | Low |