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Data from Australian Bureau of Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 1.1% in March 2026
Australian Bureau of StatisticsMonthlyReleased April 2026
Australia Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 1.1% in March 2026, released April 2026, up 1.1% from February's 0.0% reading. The print came in cooler than the 1.3% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.28%. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.2%, vs 0.33% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
1.1
Actual
1.3
Consensus
0
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.28 percentage points
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: -0.02
Actual: 0
Error: -0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| S&P/ASX 200 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Bullish S&P | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate MoM (Australia) was reported at 1.1% in April 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.3% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/NZD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for May 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Construction Work Done QoQ (May 27) and Inflation Rate YoY (May 27).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Inflation Rate MoM - AU
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About Inflation Rate MoM — Australia
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services in a given economy from one month to the next. It is a key measure of inflation and provides insight into the rate at which prices are rising or falling, which can impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 1.1 %, consensus 1.3 %. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 0 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print. Current dynamics are the primary headwind in the projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.68) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.