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Data from Australian Bureau of Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.4% in April 2026
Australian Bureau of StatisticsMonthlyReleased May 2026
Australia Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.4% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.7% from March's 1.1% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.6% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.55%, vs 0.47% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.6
Consensus
1.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.24 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.6
Actual: 0.4
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| S&P/ASX 200 | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | INDEX | Bullish S&P | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate MoM (Australia) was reported at 0.4% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.6% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.3%, ranging from 0% to 1% across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.27%, down from the prior three at 0.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/NZD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.24%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Jun 12) and Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Inflation Rate MoM - AU
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About Inflation Rate MoM — Australia
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services in a given economy from one month to the next. It is a key measure of inflation and provides insight into the rate at which prices are rising or falling, which can impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.6 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 1.1 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.65) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.