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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone CPI YoY climbed to 3.3% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Eurozone CPI YoY climbed to 3.3% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.4% from July's 2.9% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.51%. Over the past 3 months, CPI YoY averaged 2.8%, vs 2.37% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
3.3
Actual
3.3
Consensus
2.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.02 percentage points
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 3.32
Actual: 3.3
Error: +0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.78 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.75 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI YoY (European Union) was reported at 3.3% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.3% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.68%, ranging from 1.8% to 3.3% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.03%, up from the prior three at 2.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.02%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Sep 7) and Employment Change YoY (Sep 7).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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CPI YoY - EU
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About CPI YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
The EU's CPI YoY for August came in at 3.300000%, matching consensus and rising from July's 2.900000%. This acceleration signals a notable increase in inflationary pressures compared to the prior month. Market participants will closely watch upcoming ECB communications for policy adjustments amid this inflation uptick. Updated 9/1/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 3.3 %, consensus 3.3 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 2.9 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 2.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.78) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Monday, September 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | EU | Sentix Investors Sentiment | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.30 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Employment Change QoQ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Employment Change YoY | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | 1.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.3 | 1 | 1.00 | Medium | |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |