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Data from European Central Bank. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Deposit Facility Rate climbed to 2.5% in September 2026
European Central BankMonthlyReleased September 2026
Eurozone Deposit Facility Rate climbed to 2.5% in September 2026, up 0.25% from August's 2.25% reading. The reading matched the 2.5% consensus. Deposit Facility Rate has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Deposit Facility Rate is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
2.5
Actual
2.5
Consensus
2.25
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 2.5
Actual: 2.5
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Deposit Facility Rate (European Union) was reported at 2.5% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.5% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.25%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.13%, ranging from 2% to 2.5% across 6 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.25%, up from the prior three at 2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.19%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.46%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Deposit Facility Rate has averaged 2.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include ECB President Lagarde Speech (Sep 16) and ECB Lagarde Speech (Sep 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Deposit Facility Rate - EU
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About Deposit Facility Rate — European Union
DEFINITION
The Deposit Facility Rate is a financial indicator used by central banks to control the amount of money in circulation and influence interest rates. It is the interest rate at which commercial banks can deposit excess funds with the central bank, providing a safe and convenient way to manage their liquidity. This rate serves as a tool for monetary policy, allowing central banks to encourage or discourage lending and borrowing activities in the economy. As such, it is an important factor in determining the overall health and stability of a country's financial system.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 2.5 %, consensus 2.5 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 2.25 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 2.25 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | EU | Balance of Trade | 14.2 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 8.95 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | 25.8 | 31.4 | 39.9 | 32.85 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Production MoM | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.15 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Production YoY | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Wage Growth YoY | 3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.10 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Labour Cost Index YoY | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3 | 3.05 | Low |
| Thursday, September 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | EU | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.10 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | CPI n.s.a | 103.24 | 103.7 | 103.70 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | CPI | 103.7 | 103.24 | 103.7 | 103.69 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.42 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Inflation Rate | 103.7 | 103.24 | 103.7 | 103.70 | High |