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Eurozone Eu Deposit Facility Rate — Forecast | Sigmanomics
European Union Deposit Facility Rate
Latest Release
2
Actual
2
Consensus
2
Previous
Deposit Facility Rate (European Union) was reported at 2% in March 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.03%, ranging from 2% to 2.25% across 8 releases. Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
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Deposit Facility Rate - EU
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Key Takeaways: The European Central Bank's Deposit Facility Rate held steady at 2.00% for February, marking the ninth consecutive month at this level. No change from January. The rate remains 0.50 percentage points below its March 2025 peak. Markets showed muted response as the policy stance stays firmly on hold.
EU Deposit Facility Rate Holds at 2.00% in February: Policy Steadfast, Markets Unmoved
Policy pulse: The Deposit Facility Rate remained at 2.00% in February, unchanged from January and matching the ECB's stated policy stance[1].
Market lens:Eurozone bond yields barely budged after the release, as investors anticipated no shift in the central bank's deposit rate. The euro traded in a narrow range, reflecting consensus that the ECB will maintain its current posture until clear signals emerge from inflation and growth data.
Foundational Indicators
MoM comparison: February's 2.00% matches January's level, with no change since June 2025.
YoY comparison: The rate stands 0.50 percentage points below March 2025's 2.50% peak.
Historical context: The Deposit Facility Rate has been at 2.00% since June 2025, following a 25 basis point cut from 2.25% in April 2025.
Drivers this month:
Core inflation at 2.7% YoY (Eurostat, Jan 2026)[1]
Real GDP growth at 0.3% QoQ (Q4 2025)[1]
Unemployment steady at 6.4% (Jan 2026)[1]
Policy pulse: The ECB's target for the Deposit Facility Rate remains at 2.00%, with no deviation since the last adjustment.
Market lens:Short-term euro money market rates remained anchored, reflecting confidence in the ECB's steady hand. Swap spreads and forward rate agreements showed little movement, underscoring the market's alignment with central bank guidance.
Chart Dynamics
February's Deposit Facility Rate held at 2.00%, unchanged from January and matching the 12-month average of 2.00%. The last move was a 25 basis point cut in June 2025, down from April's 2.25%. Since peaking at 2.50% in March 2025, the rate has declined by 0.50 percentage points and remained flat for nine consecutive months.
The stability in the rate reflects the ECB's cautious approach amid persistent but moderating inflation. Over the past six months, the Deposit Facility Rate has shown no volatility, in contrast to the more active cycle seen in early 2025.
Deposit Facility Rate trend (March 2025 – February 2026)
What This Chart Tells Us: The Deposit Facility Rate's flat trajectory since June 2025 signals the ECB's commitment to policy stability. The absence of recent moves underscores a wait-and-see approach as inflation and growth indicators evolve. The chart highlights a clear shift from the tightening cycle of early 2025 to a prolonged holding pattern.
Forward Outlook
Bullish scenario (20–30%): Faster disinflation and resilient growth could prompt the ECB to consider a rate cut in the second half of 2026.
Base case (60–70%): The Deposit Facility Rate remains at 2.00% through mid-2026 as the ECB monitors inflation and labor market trends.
Bearish scenario (10–20%): Renewed inflationary pressures or external shocks could delay any policy easing, keeping the rate unchanged or even prompting a hike.
The ECB's policy path will hinge on core inflation, wage growth, and external demand. Upside risks include stronger-than-expected economic activity, while downside risks stem from geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility.
Data source: European Central Bank, Eurostat. Methodology: Official ECB policy releases, monthly rate history, and Eurostat macroeconomic indicators.
Closing Thoughts
Drivers this month:
Stable inflation expectations
Subdued credit growth
Consistent ECB communication
Policy pulse: The Deposit Facility Rate remains aligned with the ECB's stated objectives, with no deviation from the 2.00% target.
Market lens:Market participants see little incentive to reposition, given the extended period of policy stability. The focus now shifts to upcoming inflation prints and ECB commentary for any sign of a shift in stance.
Key Markets Reacting to Deposit Facility Rate
The Deposit Facility Rate shapes eurozone liquidity and influences a range of asset classes. Equity, currency, and crypto markets each respond differently to changes in the ECB's policy stance. Below are verified tradable symbols from Sigmanomics, each with a direct or indirect correlation to the Deposit Facility Rate.
AAPL: Sensitive to global rate cycles; eurozone policy shifts can impact multinational tech earnings via FX and demand channels.
EURUSD: Directly reflects ECB policy moves; stable rates often anchor the euro's trading range against the dollar.
BTCUSD: Crypto assets can react to shifts in eurozone liquidity and risk appetite, especially during periods of policy change.
Deposit Facility Rate
EURUSD
Mar 2020: -0.50%
1.10
Mar 2022: -0.50%
1.09
Mar 2023: 0.00%
1.08
Mar 2024: 1.50%
1.09
Mar 2025: 2.50%
1.07
Feb 2026: 2.00%
1.08
This table shows that while the Deposit Facility Rate has risen by 2.50 percentage points since 2020, EURUSD has remained in a tight range, highlighting the euro's resilience to policy shifts.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the EU Deposit Facility Rate and why does it matter?
The Deposit Facility Rate is the interest rate banks receive for overnight deposits at the ECB. It influences short-term eurozone rates and liquidity conditions.
How did the Deposit Facility Rate perform in February?
February's rate was unchanged at 2.00%, marking the ninth consecutive month at this level and reflecting the ECB's steady policy stance.
What are the main factors driving the Deposit Facility Rate?
Key drivers include eurozone inflation trends, GDP growth, and the ECB's policy objectives. The rate has remained stable as inflation moderates and growth steadies.
Takeaway: The ECB's Deposit Facility Rate remains firmly anchored at 2.00%, underscoring a prolonged period of policy stability.
Updated 3/19/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Sources:
European Central Bank, Deposit Facility Rate releases and historical data, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
Eurostat, Euro area inflation and labor market statistics, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat
February's Deposit Facility Rate held at 2.00%, unchanged from January and matching the 12-month average of 2.00%. The last move was a 25 basis point cut in June 2025, down from April's 2.25%. Since peaking at 2.50% in March 2025, the rate has declined by 0.50 percentage points and remained flat for nine consecutive months.
The stability in the rate reflects the ECB's cautious approach amid persistent but moderating inflation. Over the past six months, the Deposit Facility Rate has shown no volatility, in contrast to the more active cycle seen in early 2025.