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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MacaoMacao Tourist Arrivals YoY fell to 3.4% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Macao Tourist Arrivals YoY fell to 3.4% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 7.9% from April's 11.3% reading. The reading missed the 7.5% consensus by 4.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 16.02%. Over the past 3 months, Tourist Arrivals YoY averaged 10.95%, vs 24.05% in the prior 3-month window. Tourist Arrivals YoY is now the lowest in 14 months.
Latest Release
3.4
Actual
7.5
Consensus
11.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±114.91 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 7.15
Actual: 3.4
Error: +3.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tourist Arrivals YoY (Macao) was reported at -3.1% in July 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 12.84%, ranging from -3.1% to 32.6% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.87%, down from the prior three at 22.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.91%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 8.14%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Tourist Arrivals YoY has averaged 9.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 114.91%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 21, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Tourist Arrivals YoY - MO
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About Tourist Arrivals YoY — Macao
DEFINITION
Tourist Arrivals YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the number of tourists visiting a particular destination. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of tourism in a specific location, which can have a significant impact on the local economy. This indicator is often used by businesses and governments to track the performance of the tourism industry and make informed decisions regarding marketing strategies, investment opportunities, and policy changes.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -3.1 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 3.4 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 11.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.47) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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